What are we even watching?
12 MLS games, 2 USOC wins, and a plethora of sheets soo clean they'd make both a mom and a drill sergeant happy. While there are still many things up in the air with first-year coach Ben Olsen and this rendition of the Houston Dynamo, what is certain is that this team is different. Offseason additions plus some tactical changes have the Houston Dynamo as one of the best defensive teams in the league, and better defensively organized than we've seen in quite some time. But does different mean better, or more importantly, Playoff Capable. How is this team soo good defensively, and yet so terrible in the attack? After nearly a decade of misery for the Dynamo Die-hards, there are some positive trends, some concerning trends, and some disastrous trends happening this year that we'll look into. So let's sit back, put on our bibs, and dig in as we look at FC Dallas, and some comparisons to the past three years. Note: This is a fairly long post as a heads up.
Last Night was a miserable joy:
Is it surprising? Going into the game you had to know that (1) Playing on the road is not good for us, and hasn't been since 2013 (when we went 5-7-5) (2) playing Frisco on the road is just setting us all up for heartbrake. The Dynamo came out looking for a goal, and trying to play through Sebastián Ferreira. Playing a different lineup in many ways, with Escobar lined up on the right (as opposed to Steres), Sebas starting at striker, and Ibrahim Aliyu getting another start on the wing. It also saw Chase Gasper start at LB as Ben Olsen finally got a naturally left-footed LB on the left side.
There were some good moments in the first five minutes. Coco found Sebas at the top of the box, who laid it off to Bassi for a shot. Bassi chose to go back post, but instead found the sliding Marco Farfan's body. Aliyu's back-heeled attempt off a Bassi corner on the ensuing corner and the Dynamo looked like they were serious about trying to snatch one early. Then both the game and the attack ground to a halt as from minute 3 to minute 45, there were only two shots generated by either team (both by FC Dallas) and none for the final 25 minutes of the half. It was a choppy, turnover and foul fest that wasn't the best to watch. It was, in fact, such a snooze fest that referee Victor Rivas ended the half at 44:54 during a FC Dallas throw-in attempt.
The second half turned quickly.
Steve Clark really deserves a lot of credit for keeping this game as close as it was. His stop on Jesus Ferreira's shot right at the top of the 6-yard box in the 19th minute kept the game 0-0. Frisco definitely held the advantage in the opening minutes of the second half. Their pressing was disrupting Houston's play from the back, the Dynamo were having problems finding Coco and HH, and giveaways were plentiful. It was a giveaway by Coco in the defensive third that led to the free kick that Jader Obrian scored on. A play that was terribly defended from the start, nobody marked Facundo Quignon at the back post, and several Dynamo defenders gave up on the play leading to the rebound by Obrian. FC Dallas began to swarm the midfield, the Dynamo could barely do anything other than pass around the backline and bang 40-yard passes downfield.
The game changed slightly with the subbing on of Thor and Nelson Quiñones. Quiñones began to stretch the field and Micael immediately connected one to him downfield, drawing a foul. Thor had a great chance off a nice slip-pass from Coco (61:35) that went just wide of the far post. The biggest threat of the second half, however, came from FC Dallas:
Clark and Escobar managed to keep it at 1-0, which was the biggest defensive play of the game for the Dynamo. Thor's late-game heroics helped secure a point and turned a game that had been a punchless attack, sloppily played game into a sigh of relief. The goal was an important one for many reasons: (1) It was the first goal by a striker in MLS play on the year. (2) It was yet another perfectly played corner by Hector Herrera. (3) It shows how important having a guy that can go up and get the ball is when Hector Herrera is taking the corner. When Hector's options are Bassi, Corey Baird, Ivan Franco, Coco, Franco Escobar, and Artur there's literally no chance any of them are getting on the end of a cross.
With the draw, Houston is below the playoff line for the first time all year. We all know that June has brought trouble to this team in the past, but this team is playing differently than years before. This is a very important stretch for the Dynamo, with Austin coming in on the 27th and 5 of our next 7 after that on the road. All of the games are against teams ahead of us in the standings, and 4 of them are against the top 3 in the conference. This is a brutal stretch for the Dynamo, and the defense will need to hold up.
But this scenario is all too familiar for Dynamo fans. Let's take a brief look at this year's team vs. teams of the previous two years. How are we different? How are we similar? Will we be able to land in a playoff position for the first time since 2017?
3-Year Record:
It's somewhat mindblowing that for three straight years, we've landed with the exact same number of points over the first 12 games. While this version of the team is the best defensively that we've seen in a while, the offensive production has yet to be there in order to push the team forward. While there have been pleasant surprises and tremendously steady performances on the backline (Bartlow, Hadebe, Micael, Steres, Escobar, Tate Schmitt) and Artur has been the best pickup of the offseason, the front line has been overwhelmingly disappointing.
In fact, disappointing isn't even the word. This has been the least threatening attack ever fielded wearing the Dynamo crest. Not to take away from our efficiency on set pieces (which is good) to be twelve games in and your combined attackers (Baird, Franco, Bassi, Thor, Sebas, Quinones, and the newly acquired Ibrahim Aliyu) have 2 goals and 3 assists from open play is unfathomable. We can place a lot of blame on the stranglehold that Corey Baird has had on the #9 position, but Franco, Bassi and Quiñones haven't created anything on their own.
We can decry the set piece goals, but we should actually be thankful for them. The Dynamo's combined 7 goals off set pieces and penalties is good for 3rd in the league. What is dreadful, as we all know, is their attack in open play. #HoldItDown's 0.75 Non-Penalty Expected Goals/90 ranks dead last in MLS. The second closest, Sporting K.C. is slightly better at 0.82. Houston ranks near the bottom in almost all shot creation and shooting efficiency matrices: shots/90 (3rd worst @ 9.92), shots on target/90 (last @ 3.08), goals per shot (second to last at 0.06), and goals per shot on target (0.19; 4th worst). Even Tab's teams were creating shots. The front line doesn't create enough for each other, and when they do they won't pull the trigger on the shots. Hector Herrera has been tremendous in the midfield this year, but to play this style and in this system, your front three have to be shot-creators. Corey Baird, our starting #9, is averaging 1.8 shot-creating actions/90. Thor (1.87) and Sebas (1.60) are no better, and the three COMBINED have 7 shots on target in 12 games played.
Bassi has put home penalties, but has yet to create anything in open play. When he tucks inside to allow the LB to overlap, he is actually limiting the attack because he doesn't make plays with the ball at his feet. He's hesitant, and often looking to make the safe pass back to Coco or HH instead of taking initiative and taking guys on. He's not cutting inside and looking to shoot, and he can't find any of our strikers in front of the net. Because of this style of play, the Dynamo attack often resembles a bowling alley. Ram it straight down the middle and pray the pins to fall. When Escobar is playing on the left side, he's not a natural crosser from that position and the wide play simply comes back middle. There's no threat out there.
What's needed?
A total change in attacking philosophy. It won't matter which players you put out there if the defense can simply stuff 6 bigger, stronger defenders in the box and shut down the middle of our attack. Corey Baird, for all his running and pressing........and getting the crap kicked out of him every game....which we actually should praise him for (for real, the dude is taking a beating this year on a nightly basis) doesn't get in behind and often when we win the ball back it's played backward to the midfield instead of being direct and going for goal. Playing 3 CB's works well defensively, but when Steres rarely crosses the midfield line its stifling the entire right side of our attack. The RW plays inside on top of HH, and there's no overlapping option to stretch the defense. Switching to a traditional 4-2-3-1 with a #10 and a #9 doesn't work either, because our wings are "cut in on your strong foot" wings, not wide play wings and we don't have a #10 (Coco and Bassi aren't going to cut it there). 2 striker set with Thor and Sebas? Which of HH, Coco, or Artur are you willing to sit?
We need a #9 who can cut back to the ball, allow our wings to run off of him, our midfield to run into the wholes behind them, and make the secondary run to open space off the pass. We also need some guys who will just rip the ball when it comes to them. Quit waiting for the perfect chance to come to them, and create one on their own. The only one I've seen that appears unaffected by anything and is going to smash the ball toward goal with every part of his body he can is Thor. Thor may be the least defensive capable of the three, and he's probably the worst passer and hold up play player, but at least he'll shoot. It's clear that the tactics aren't working. It's even more clear that the back 8 seem to be consistent while the front 3 can't find their way. In years past, I've said that "No X's and O's can fix this", but in this case I think the exact opposite. This team has no ideas going forward, no plan, no real set patterns, and is consistently too narrow. In order to solve this problem, it needs a ton of attention and a drastic change in philosophy.
Ranking the offseason additions:
Note: I'm not adding Ibrahim Aliyu to this list since he recently started playing and the jury's still out on him, we'll re-evaluate him later.
- Artur - A - Artur has been a rock in the midfield all season for the Dynamo. His defensive work rate combined with occasionally flashing some skill with the ball at his feet has been a huge reason why the Dynamo have improved their defense and possession game this year.
- Amine Bassi - B - While Bassi leads the team in goals (5), his 1 goal and 0 assists from open play in 668 minutes has to be better, especially when you consider that he has more touches (461) than any other attacker on the team. Bassi does have 15 key passes, which is tied for second on the team and has him top 50 in the league, but the results just arent there from his work as of now.
- Ivan Franco - C- - Ivan is a high-work-rate, high-energy defensive forward. His pressing has been key to the Dynamo defensive record this year, as he's pressing backlines and causing deep passes under pressure and making teams uncomfortable. The downside for Ivan, however, is in attack. Ivan has 36 touches inside the box, more than any other Dynamo player (Coco is second with 27). 0 Goals, 0 Assists, 13 shots, 7 on target, 7 key passes. Ivan has some tremendous flashes (like the overhead shot in Week 2), but also has a lot of runs that end up with him taking on 4 defenders, falling down, and losing the ball. Franco works really hard, but the Dynamo are overfilled with hard-working, low-producing forwards right now. He needs to unlock some of that magic into actual results.
- Franco Escobar - B- - Another hard-working defender that has spent a lot of time playing out of his natural position. Escobar is a key member to the defense, and one of the few wide players the Dynamo have. While he does get the ball wide, he's mostly not a threat to shoot or connect on a cross from there. Solid veteran pickup this offseason.
- Luis Caicedo - B - Luis has been exactly what he was brought in to be, a solid veteran replacement for HH and Coco. He's been steady, solid, but unspectacular. Caicedo was a really good veteran pickup late in the offseason.
- Brad Smith - D- - Not all Brad's fault as he recovers from knee surgery, but the veteran LB with pedigree should have been the reason it was ok to let Adam Lundqvist go to an in state rival. Brad hasn't played much, and when he has he's been extremely disappointing. He's nowhere near as fast running up and down the touchline as he used to be, and unable to go by anyone he can't find space to get crosses off either. While he's not a defensive liability, he hasn't been particularly good in defense either. Very disappointing pickup so far.
- Tate Schmitt - B - Tate was the width to the Dynamo attack until a shoulder-to-shoulder challenge ended his season. A very pleasant surprise picked up on a free, was a left-footed left back. While he struggled in finding his marks at times, and wasn't the greatest 1v1 defender, Tate looked good going forward.
- Chase Gasper - D- - Gasper has been extremely frustrating on the field. Picked up a red in the USOC for getting beat, and has been beaten consistently in defense. Offers almost nothing going forward. In need of a left-footed LB, Gasper wasn't the one.
- Erik Sviatchenko - INC - Sviatchenko was a late addition and has yet to make an appearance in #ForeverOrange.
- Andrew Tarbell - B - Tarbell gets a B because of his play in the USOC. Did his duty and picked up two wins and two clean sheets along the way.
- Djevencio van der Kust - D- - The grade is not necessarily his fault, but the team desperately needs a LB and he's yet to make a first-team appearance. He's young (22) and is on loan with a very reasonable buy option, could still pan out with time, but the Dynamo needed to hit on this one badly.
Next Up:
Two Games at Shell Energy this week as The Dynamo play Minnesota in the USOC on Tuesday.
Minnesota completely owns us, going 6-0-0 against us in the last 6 and outscoring us 11-3 over that span.
Saturday: Broccoli FC comes to town.
Thanks again for reading,
Remember to always #HoldItDown and stay #ForeverOrange
Brian
