Almost 1/4 way through the season, is this team better than last year: A look.

Here we sit, 9 weeks into the season after back-to-back losses to our Texas rivals, and everyone's in a tizzy.  Some great debate is being had amongst Dynamo faithful over the direction Paulo Nagamura has this team headed, and many supporters side with the belief that this team is better than last year's version.  There have been signs of life, and there have been shades of last year.  But what do the numbers say?  Let's take a look inside the numbers and see if we haven't exercised some demons from the past.  

Where were we last year at this exact point? 3-3-3 (same record as we currently have).  That was right before Tab and crew managed to reel off a winless streak of 16 games once the June heat set in.  Our goal differential (12 GF - 13 GA: -1 GD) is strikingly similar to where we sit today (12 GF - 11 GA: +1 GD).  We are betting at holding possession than in 2021 (17th in MLS at 48% as opposed to last), and we are a more efficient passing team than a year ago (4th in MLS at 83.7%, as opposed to last), but some of the same problems persist.  While I feel like this season has passed the smell test better than 2021 did, the results are nearly identical.  So are some of the numbers of the players:

Through 9 games:

Fafa Picault

• 2021: 1 goal - 2 assists.        
• 2022: 2 goals - 1 assist

Striker:

• Maxi Urruti: 5 goals - 1 assist      
• Sebastian Ferriera: 4 goals - 1 assist

Goal Keeper

• Marco Maric: 71.4% Save%, 12 goals against, 1 Clean Sheet       
• Steve Clark: 73% Save% 11 GA, 2 Clean Sheets

Wins Against

2021: San Jose, Sporting K.C., Vancouver  

2022: Vancouver, Inter Miami, San Jose

The beginning of this year is eerily similar to last year's.  But (I'm being sarcastic here, chill out) if we win one game in the next 16 that makes it better.......right?  I wrote at the beginning of the year that despite the additions of Clark, Hector Herrera, and Sebas, this team hadn't done enough to qualify for the playoffs.  I'm still leaning towards that notion.  Some of the same problems exist as last year, even though a couple of upgrades have been made.  This team could still prove me wrong, however, and I'm hoping they do.   Here's a look at some key positions that need to step up, with a look to what's ahead.  Here's the good at some of the most pressing matters through the early parts of the year.

The midfield: Where will HH fit in this midfield?

The addition of Hector Herrera is a no-brainer.  He's an upgrade over Memo Rodriguez, Mattias Vera and Coco Carrasquilla as a deep-lying midfielder who can get the ball down the field.  Herrera can get the ball to the next level and sting defenses with downfield passing.  While he's not going to pour in goals and assists, he should be able to connect to the top 4 better than anyone we have.  Teams that press high and play chaotic in the midfield make it almost impossible for the Dynamo attack to hold possession and even cross midfield at times. The biggest signing in the history of #ForeverOrange will help be a solution to that.  Currently, the only players we have that are a threat to get the ball downfield are Teenage Hadebe and Ethan Bartlow.  The question is who fits next to him?  I could see a rotation of Vera, Coco, and HH in order to keep legs fresh with HH getting the bulk of the minutes and his partner based on matchup. 
Coco is the best with the ball at his feet, Vera is a more efficient and smart passer.  Neither has been a threat in the attack, but both have been fairly solid in defense.  Coco's 72 Recoveries, and 23 Tackles + Interceptions are a sign that he's helping win back possessions.  He's been good at taking on defenders and playing direct with the ball at his feet, but that final pass or the pass that sets up the final pass has been lacking.  His 81.9% completion is lower than you'd like from that position, but a slight improvement over his rate from last year.  Coco is an important part of this midfield (for now), and you've got to start to question whether the team will actually pick up his option this summer, or just let it go when HH comes and pair him with Vera.  It's very hard to believe that Coco has already logged more minutes than he did last year, but his work is starting to show.  He's completed more passes at a higher rate and all of his defensive numbers are up too.  He's working harder, and playing a more pivotal role than last year under Tab.  He still has strides to make, but month by month he seems to be improving. I would say he's a player we absolutely need to keep, Pat Onstad has said he'd like to keep him, but Coco came out recently saying they haven't approached him about it.

Vera is a solid workhorse, but he's also extremely limited.  He's not the biggest or fastest, but he works extremely hard and is a really smart player. He picks up second balls, he finds his way in front of shots and crosses, and he's an extremely efficient passer.  He's passing above 90% yet again (91.4%) and is hitting balls at literally every level.  The Dynamo simply don't look the same without him in the midfield.  And while I don't know how much higher Vera's ceiling is, he's a guy we have to keep around. 

Memo has been better this year with less expected of him.  While Memo is very much a player who is in between Vera and Coco in terms of skill (better with the ball at his feet than Vera, a solid passer, and can make the final play at times), he also works extremely hard on both sides of the ball.  While he hasn't been as productive as many of us would like, I don' think anyone who watches the Dynamo question how hard he plays. Memo can always have a role on this team, but they'll never be a true contender if he's a focal point.  If you add in Darwin Ceren, there are just too many defensive, limited going forward midfielders for this team to play the proactive style they want to install. While we still have a lot of positions that could use an upgrade, none is more important than solidifying the midfield.

How much does Darwin Quintero have left?

DQ has been a headache this year.  Sometimes for opposing defenses, sometimes for #HoldItDown FC.  Regardless, he's the only player wearing an Orange jersey that can do what he does.  When he's on his game, he makes the opposition look helpless.  When he's not, he's turning the ball over and creating counter-attack opportunities for the other team.  He's tied for the team lead in goals (already surpassing last year's mark), but has yet to notch an assist.  His goals have all come against terrible defenses as Vancouver and Inter Miami are tied for the 3rd worst defenses in the league (18 goals against), and San Jose is the worst (23 goals against). He was really good against Portland Timbers (7 SCA, 4 shots, 2 on Target, 46 touches) but it didn't result in a goal.  Darwin was decent against Dallas, and mostly terrible against Austin FC, although he had the best two chances of the game.  With the heat setting in, and at 34 years of age, I wonder many more times will see "El Cientifico del Gol" vs DQ the Headache.  Going forward, he has to find a way to connect with Sebas, and the two have to figure out how to play off of each other and with each other.  In the early going, it seems more often than not Sebas is playing behind DQ as opposed to vice versa.  After this year, the Dynamo have to find a way to replace him.  When he comes off the field the Dynamo attack stagnates and is almost non-existant.  Whether that replacement can come from here (Marcelo Palomino, Tyler Pasher) or if they find them in the transfer market, the Dynamo have to make finding another attacking midfielder a priority.

Wide Play and Connecting with Sebas.

It seems weird since Lundkvist leads the team in assists (3) and Pasher, Baird, and Fafa have combined for 3 more, but decent service from wide has been hard to come by so far this year.  I thought that installing Pasher in the starting lineup would help with this, but so far it hasn't resulted in quality combo play or produced goals.  When teams sit back, Lundkvist and Dorsey can overlap and push up the sidelines allowing Pasher and Fafa to cut back inside to their stronger foot.  But Austin, Dallas and San Jose all put soo much pressure on our Fullbacks that they couldn't push up without the threat of getting burned on the counter.  All four have to connect better with Sebas up top.  Of Sebas' four goals, only one has come from inside the box while getting service from wide in open play.  There were times this year when it seemed the Dynamo were trying to force-feed Sebas the ball, and the results were terrible.  It's been a work in progress, but Sebas needs to time his runs and find space in front of the net, and he needs better service.  With 4 goals in 4 games, it seems like they've begun to find it, but there's still a lot of work to do.  Finding a connection with your striker can take time.  It's not always the easiest thing to do in the sporting world.  It's a lot like getting your QB a new receiver.  Players have to know each other's timing, and spacing, and there's a rhythm to it.  Here's hoping they find multiple ways to do that going forward.  We don't need to replicate Urruiti's horrible span from last year.

Lack of quality depth is still a problem.

When a player is underperforming, who does Paulo turn to?  Baird was mostly disappointing in the early parts of the year, and although he brings energy and defense up top he offers almost nothing going forward.  Baird isn't getting to open spots or behind the defense.  He's not creating shots, getting shots, or putting the shots he does get on target. He's not crossing the ball well and gives it away in the attacking third too often. Paulo recently made the switch to Pashern who has also been mostly disappointing.  Although Pasher has notched a goal and an assist in 321 minutes, he hasn't been great at taking on defenders and hasn't found his left foot often enough. Memo and Ceren offer energy and defense, but the attack stagnates when they are on the field.  Lundkvist and Dorsey have been.......uh....ok I guess?  Zeka hasn't done a lot in his limited minutes to show the job should be his.  Thor comes on games and looks like a bull in a china shop, but has yet to produce a goal in any way.  About the only position where it looks like there is quality depth is CB, with 4 guys playing and each doing fairly well.  

In my very humble opinion, I would think that guys like Zeka, Palomino, and Thiago would earn more looks.  Nobody in front of them is a nailed-down starter, and I would hope that Paulo starts giving each extended minutes as the year goes on.  Newcomer Beto Avila deserves to be in the mix too, he's been tearing it up for Dynamo Dos in MLS next and plays a position of need at RW.  While I think it's too early and there are too many people ahead of them to call up Juan Castillo and Pap N'Doye, they are ones to keep an eye on as well.  

Pessimistically optimistic:

I desperately want this team to be better than last year.  We need this team to turn a corner and start nailing down 3 points on a fairly regular basis in order to bring some life to this fanbase, this city, and this franchise.  I think this team is headed down a good path, but they still have a long way to go.  I still don't think this is a playoff-caliber team, even after HH arrives.  He's only a cure to one of the many ills that plague this roster.  Pat has proven that he can build a quality roster and that he can go get quality players.  There are still too many remnants of last year's roster on this team, and that was a roster that had gaping holes.  Could this team catch fire and play itself into a playoff position?  Sure.  Is it a roster I think can compete on a nightly basis with the top half of the league? Absolutely not.  There are simply too many deficiencies and not enough depth.  I also think that 90% of the roster has reached their ceiling.  Guys like Memo, Ceren, Lundi, DQ, Pasher, Baird, Fafa, Parker, Hadebe, Steres, etc. aren't getting markedly better.  If they can put it together and disguise their weaknesses, they've got a chance.  

Next up:

Saturday, May 7th @ DC United  

Last matchup: May 19th, 2019 - Dynamo 2:1 DC United.

DC United has lost 5 of their last 6 games, getting outscored 13-6 over that span. 3 of those 5 losses came at Audi Field.  

Most common Lineup - 3-4-3

Leading Goal Scorer: Ola Kamara - 4

Record: 3-0-5, 9 points (1.13 per game)

Goals: 10 (1.25 per game), Goals Against: 13 (1.63 per game), Diff: -3

Thanks again for reading! Remember to always #HoldItDown and stay #ForeverOrange

Brian