Houston Dynamo FC - 2023 Season Preview - It's time, for real.

 

Major League Soccer Season Preview (2022/2023) – Houston Dynamo

Basics: 

Full Name: Houston Dynamo F.C.
Nicknames: Orange Crush, El Naranja (The Orange)
Founded: December 15, 2005
Majority Owner: Ted Segal
General Manager: Pat Onstad
Stadium – Shell Energy Stadium 

Year Built: 2012

Capacity: 22,039

Attendance: 279,240 (16,426 per match; 21st in MLS) 

Trophies: MLS Cup - 2006,2007 MLS Cup (Runners Up) - 2011, 2012; U.S. Open Cup - 2018, North American Super-Liga (Runners Up) - 2008

Kits: 

Coach: Ben Olson

MLS Position: 13th in Western Conference (25th Overall)

U.S. Open Cup Result: Lost to Sporting K.C. 2-1 in the round of 16

Playoff Result: Did not qualify.

CONCACAF Champions League Result: Did not qualify.

Additions: Artur, Franco Escobar, Andrew Tarbell, Charles Auguste, Ifunanyachi Achara, Frantz Pierrot, Ivan Franco. Amine Bassi, Brad Smith, Tate Schmitt, Djevencio van der Kust
Losses: Tim Parker, Adam Lundqvist, Fafa Picault, Memo Rodriguez, Zeca, Zarek Valentin, Marcelo Palomino, Darwin Quintero, Darwin Ceren, Matias Vera, Sam Junqua, Thiaguinho

End of Loan: Joe Corona, Mateo Bajamich, Ian Hoffman

Before We Get Started:

Two bombs have hit Dynamo Media coverage this winter. First and foremost, I want to say thank you to the guys over at Dynamo Theory.  It's a harsh choice for SB Nation to drop their MLS coverage, an injustice to you guys, and a travesty to your fans.  You guys were part of my post-game routine, and I can't imagine you guys not being part of my Dynamo fandom.  Hopefully, you all find a way to renew and adjust, I know you have a ton of fans pulling for you.  Secondly, MLS to Apple TV will not have Glenn Davis on the broadcast for Dynamo games.  I'm hoping that Glenn will still do radio coverage for ESPN 97.5.  If so, the radio broadcasts are streamed online, and you can sync up the sound with your tv.  There should be no voice other than Glenn's covering the Dynamo.  He is the voice for this city, this fanbase, and #ForeverOrange.

2022 Overview: 

What a weird mixture of a year this was.  Before the season, we had exciting news in the biggest transfer in organization history, we had retained several veterans from years past, and hired a manager who had never been in charge of a professional organization but was known for developing young players.  The plan seemed convoluted from the start and somewhat schizophrenic in nature. It played out exactly as you would expect and the Dynamo found themselves in the exact same position they had been in when they fired Tab Ramos the year before.  In a season that brought amazing (Sebas' midfield goal vs. Austin F.C.), some young bright spots (Coco Carrasquila, Thor, Brooklyn Raines), there were simply too many unproductive holdovers from the Dynamo teams of the past.  While there were signs that this organization was changing, change had not come swiftly enough.

In what seems to be a yearly tradition, the Dynamo started off the season giving the fanbase some hope.  Losing only 1 of their first 6 games (3 wins, 2 draws) the team was showing signs of change.  The defense was steady, and while the attack wasn't producing goals at a rate that scared anybody, the Dynamo were picking up points.  April hit, the rest of MLS figured out Paulo Nagamura's system, and the complete lack of creative attacking play (especially wide) dominated the rest of the season. While the Dynamo saw an improvement in terms of goals scored, (43-36) the defense managed to closely replicate that of the year before (56-54). Even with the addition of Hector Herrera, the midfield often bogged down as they had no wide threats to keep the defense honest.  There were newcomers that left fans hoping that better times as upon us. Sebastian Ferreira (13 goals, 3 assists, 2,300 minutes played) and Thor Ulfarsson (4 goals, 1 assist in his debut season) were bright spots in the attack.  Brief glimpses of Brooklyn Raines showed a youngster that could change our midfield and eventually be the guy our academy has been waiting for.  The biggest news came in March when Hector Herrera decided to leave Atletico Madrid for #LaNaranja.  The Mexican National and key player for a Champion's League side was the type of signing this fanbase had been clamoring about for years. The team never meshed with each other or with Paulo Nagamura's style of play, and after a very arduous summer, Paulo Nagamura was fired on Sept 4th. without completing his first year as a professional manager.  We (the fans) found ourselves in the exact same position as we have been in for several years: wondering where this club was headed and if they'd actually ever change.  Pat Onstadt and Asher Mendehlsohn went to work reshaping this club and this franchise in a flurry of moves over the winter, and while we all wait with optimistic pessimism, we should see some fruits of that labor this coming spring.
  

This Winter was a season of major changes on and off the field:

While last season brought about some massive and much-needed changes to the way business was done for #ForeverOrange, it didn't bring with it results on the field.  New owner, new GM, a huge name, the biggest transfer in the history of Houston Dynamo, the highest salary ever paid, and a massive jump up the ladder in Total Wages paid.  While the Dynamo fared 6 points better than in 2021, they landed in the exact same position as the year before.  

This offseason Pat basically gutted the roster.  The Dynamo offloaded basically every holdover from the 2020 campaign and the Matt Jordan era.  Of the guys traded, sold off, non-tendered, etc., The Dynamo slashed 14,901 minutes of playing time off the roster and every single fullback the team had outside of Griffen Dorsey.  Six of their top eleven in terms of minutes played (2,4,6,7,8 and 11) and most of their main contributors off the bench are now no longer members of Houston Dynamo F.C..  Vera, Lundkvist, Parker, Memo, Fafa, DQ, Zarek Valentin, Tyler Pasher, Zeca, Ceren, and Junqua, are all names that will no longer be on the backs of those sweet Bayou City kits.  Pat opened up a bunch of cap space by moving on from some high-paid, unproductive veterans and also landed a few fairly lucrative TAM/GAM deals by moving Adam Lundkvist (Austin F.C. - $500k), Tim Parker (St. Louis F.C. - $500k ) trading their first pick in the MLS Super Draft ($375k), Fafa (Nashville F.C. - $250k), and loaned out Matias Vera for an undisclosed amount.  All in all 16 players that stepped on the field at some point in the 2022 season are now gone.  While the roster changes were much needed, the players they brought in seem to be upgrades.  While there are still questions over formation and who will play LB during Brad Smith's absence, Pat Onstad seemed to have addressed the need to put younger players around Sebas who can both take pressure off of him AND give him service.  

Additionally, there were multiple organizational changes that we should be excited about.  SRC FTBL has its headquarters in downtown Houston and is led by the man who built Seattle's analytics department.  Scouting and Analytics have been an enormous hole in the Dynamo organization over the last decade.  In his interview with Glen Davis on Soccer Matters (1/24/2023), Asher Mendelsohn said their Scouting and Analytics department basically consisted of him, Pat, and Paulo last year.  They added new partners, in Shell Energy, Arca Continental Beverages, Bay Area Credit Union, and others.  They revamped the coaching staff, not just with Ben Olsen at head coach but by bringing Aurélien Collin, Tim Hanley and Adin Osmanbasic, and Branden Burke.  But mostly, for the first time in a long time the Front Office seems to have a plan to build a roster: (1) Put playmakers around Sebas to get him the ball. (2) Strengthen the midfield with two-way, box-to-box midfielders that can defend, make plays, and connect to the front line.  (3) Get younger.  Also, Segal gave the stadium a nice little facelift.  The new seats are a nice change from the "Turn your rear-end into Grilled Cheese" orange seats of before, now if we can just move all games to 2:00 in the afternoon so we can really take advantage of the Houston summer.  Also, hopefully, we actually fill them.  The Dynamo aren't standing firm in any part of their organization.  Literally, everything, from the front office to the stadium is being overturned.  It's only a matter of time before this becomes the first-class organization we've been waiting for.

2021/2022 Position Outlook:

Goalkeeper:

Steve Clark, Andrew Tarbell, Michael Nelson, Xavier Valdez

In one of his first moves, Pat Onstad brought in a veteran goalkeeper with playoff pedigree to help change the culture in the dressing room and solidify the position.  Plagued by erratic goalkeeping and distribution from Marco Meric, Onstad sought to bring a rock between the posts.  A goalkeeper that could lead the defense and provide a consistent and professional level of net minding.  While Clark's 2022 was most definitely a disappointing one, he was also obviously an upgrade at the position over to what we had before.  Clark ranked 9th in MLS amongst starters in Save% (72%), 5th in total saves (103) and  10th in minutes played (2,905).  While Clark was definitely an upgrade and played generally well, he often was 1 play away from pulling points in a game.  Part of that was him, and part of that was the defense in front of him.  Clark faced the 5th most Shots on Target and had the 8th highest XG-against out of anyone in the league.  The Dynamo defense allowed the second-most Shot Creating Actions in the league (888), and the second-most shots (493) and the average distance of shot (17m) was third worst in the league.  To put that in context, on an average day Clark faced 5 more dangerous plays than his counterparts in Austin, 4 more than in Dallas, and 7 more than his counterpart at LAFC.  Clark would have had to have been Super Human for the Dynamo to compete. 

While Clark was sometimes steady, he ranked in the bottom tier in the league in most goalkeeping categories.  Clark also seemed to fade down the stretch.  There were often times in the last two months of the season Clark simply didn't stop balls that he did at the beginning.  He seemed a step slow, a 1/2 second late, or failed to react to the ball at all.    This actually has me worried about Clark for two reasons: (1) At 36 years old, will he remain agile enough to be a ball stopper when needed? (2) The Dynamo lost a lot of depth on the back line, and didn't really provide an upgrade.  Dropping 1/2 of their back line from the last two years was needed, but they added no CB in front of him, a LB that's coming off a serious knee injury, and a RB that's talented but also undersized.  They did add valuable depth, signing Andrew Tarbell as the #2. “We talked about adding more quality and depth to our roster this offseason and Andrew’s signing aligns with that intention. Plus, his experience on three different MLS Playoff clubs will be invaluable as we restore a winning mentality at our club. We welcome Andrew and his family to the city of Houston.”  Michael Nelson and youngster Xavier Valdez complete the roster.  Valdez has a chance to be the #1 long-term, but will most likely spend this year with Dynamo 2.  

Central Defense:

 Teenage Hadebe, Daniel Steres, Ethan Bartlow, Micael dos Santos Silva

The biggest question for the Dynamo this year won't be in the productivity of the newly acquired attackers, it will be in the effectiveness of the back line.  Teenage Hadebe is a good MLS defender.  Teenage is sometimes spectacular and occasionally erratic, but he's a talented and athletic Center Back who (when he's on) will shut down opposing attacks quickly.  Hadebe is one of the most productive Centerbacks in the league, ranking in the top 1/2 of CB's in every category offensively, defensively and passing.  Even though he ranked low in Aerial Duels Won, his 65% conversion rate is in the top 1/3rd of the league.  Hadebe has a tendency to sometimes misread his partner, allowing balls through that he shouldn't, or missing a mark on a cross because he defers to a partner that isn't there.  He rarely gets beat 1v1.  He's really good with the ball at his feet, is a very accurate passer, and can hit the deep ball out of the back. 

The problem though is who will play next to him.  Steres is a fairly low-priced veteran who will bring stability to the position.  While Steres is an excellent passer, he's not a very active defender.  Steres isn't a great tackler is space, he doesn't really attack opposing ball handlers, he's not fast or quick and he doesn't win balls in the air.  At 31 years old, he is what he is, and is one of the positions the Dynamo actually got OLDER at.  While he is at the level of MLS starter, is he enough to bring this team out of the basement?  I feel like this is one position that was downgraded this offseason, but one they desperately need.  Bartlow came a long way last year.  He was solid for HD2 all year, and the Dyanmo actually performed well in his 15 appearances.  Going 6-2-7 (3-1-5 with him in the starting 11), Bartlow's performances were highlighted by his twice posting 9 clearances (2-1 win vs. LAFC, 0-0 draw vs Sporting K.C.) and his 4 block, 4 clearance performance in a 3-1 win vs. Inter Miami.  Bartlow has a chance to be a starting-level player in MLS, and moving on from Tim Parker should help him see more minutes in 2023.  Bartlow has to be more active on the back end, but he isn't afraid to go into challenges and is usually where he needs to be when he needs to be there.  While he isn't a Dynamic CB, he can be a good compliment to Hadebe and looks like another MLS Super Draft Pick that will pan out. If the Dynamo can add an obvious upgrade here at a reasonable price, you would assume they would have to take it.  Other than that look for Steres and Bartlow to split time opposite Hadebe and occasionally share the CB duties together.  The outlier is Micael, who played mostly for DynaDos last year.  He did make one appearance for the first team, in a 3-2 loss to CF Montreal.  The score was tied 2-2 when Micael came on the field at half-time for Memo Rodriguez, and he showed signs of being a capable first-team member.  Most notably, the ability to connect on passes at all levels.  Micael was 23-27 passing in the second half hitting 10-11 short, 11-13 from fifteen to twenty yards, and 2-3 on balls over 30 yards.  He's solid with the ball at his feet, big (6'3" 190 lbs) and athletic.  He's one to definitely keep an eye on moving forward, but may continue to get minutes with HD2 as the season goes on.

Welcome to @MLS, Micael 🇧🇷#DejaloTodo pic.twitter.com/7OW2ubiwgZ

— Houston Dynamo FC (@HoustonDynamo) August 14, 2022

Full Backs:

Griffen Dorsey, Brad Smith, Franco Escobar, Djevencio van der Kust, Tate Schmitt

In an offseason of change, Pat Onstad moved on from one of the most steady presences in the Dynamo Lineup over the last 5 years.   Adam Lundkvist played 9,927 minutes and made 111 starts over the last 5 seasons, and while moving on from players of this generation was much needed, Lundkvist is one I actually am sad to see go.  Adam brought all he had every game, never complained or pointed fingers, and was generally a good human.  You'd love to have a guy like that in your locker room long-term, but both he and the club felt the need to move on and Pat got a decent chunk of cash for him.  It's unfortunate that he moved on to Austin F.C. for Dynamo fans, but was still a no-brainer of a move.  Zeca? Zarek Valentine? Same Junqua? All gone.  It was one of the many positions that got a much needed makeover, and basically got wiped clean for a fresh start.

Griffen Dorsey, the one holdover, quietly turned himself into a steady MLS back and presence in the starting 11.  Making 19 starts and playing over 1600 minutes played, Dorsey is a workhorse RB who plays up and down the touchline.  Dorsey is a decent passer, who was second behind only Darwin Quintero in Goal Creating actions/90.  Dorsey completed 19 passes into the opponents' penalty box, and while he needs to get better on the defensive side of the ball he made huge strides in terms of positioning and going into challenges.  Every single defensive ratio was vastly improved from 2021, including Ground Duels won, Tackle %, and tackles + interceptions/90.  His passing rate also climbed from 72%-78% over the year.  I would assume that the intention is to start the year with he and Franco Escobar at fullback entering the season, as Brad Smith recovers from ACL repair. Tate Schmitt who was brought in as a trialist during the preseason did enough to earn a contract with the Dynamo this year. The former Real Salt Lake player actually came through as a striker, but is now playing defender after making the switch there playing for Real Monarchs in the USL. The left-footer has decent size and speed, and is fairly versatile considering his lack of MLS minutes.  He did post 860 minutes in 14 appearances (10 starts) for RSL last year, and should be a decent depth piece for the Dynamo this year. Djevencio van der Kust comes from FC Utrecht as what has to be seen as a developmental project.  “We are excited to welcome Djevencio to Houston and look forward to his continued development after earning competitive minutes in one of the top leagues in the world,” Dynamo general manager Pat Onstad said in a release. “He is a promising young player that we believe can make an impact this season. He was very clear about why he wanted to join the club and we’re excited to welcome him."

Onstad brought in two solid veterans with winning pedigrees to fill out the squad in Franco Escobar and Brad Smith.  Escobar is a very underrated MLS back, and has been one of the more productive RB's in MLS over the last 4 years. He's very good going into challenges, scoops up a ton of loose balls (223 combined in his 2 years in Atlanta), “Franco is a winner in our league. Since coming to MLS in 2018, he has won every major domestic trophy available, including two MLS Cups, a Supporters’ Shield, Campeones Cup, and the US Open Cup,” Dynamo general manager Pat Onstad said in a press release.“He will strengthen our backline and provide valuable experience to our locker room. We are thrilled that Franco chose Houston in the next step in his career.”  Escobar works at a similar rate to Adam Lundkvist on the defensive end, is very good bringing the ball forward, and is a very accurate passer.

Central Midfield: 

 Coco Carrasquilla, Hector Herrera, Artur, Amine Bassi, Juan Castilla, Brooklyn Raines, Daniel Rios, Charles Auguste,

 

In a series of moves, Pat Onstad brought down the hatchet on an underperforming, often overpriced midfield that has been one of the Achilles heels on the team for half a decade.  What's here now are three very good veterans and a flurry of young talent off the bench.  Coco, HH, and Artur are an interesting trio in the midfield, as they don't have a true creator in the bunch.  The three fit a flexible 4-3-3, as long as there is creative play from the edges.  Artur is more of a traditional 6, a deep-lying defensive midfielder that can get the ball back in multiple ways and get it downfield.  Replacing Matias Vera, Artur is a different kind of player.  He's bigger, better with the ball at his feet, and can break lines with the dribble and the pass.  Vera was always a ball hound in the middle, and one of the highest accuracy passers in MLS year in and year out. But he did little to get the ball forward and really struggled against high-pressing teams.  While he completed a ton of passes, they were mostly sideways and backward.  Artur, winner of the 2020 MLS cup with the Columbus Crew, will help protect the backline and can play the ball up to the players in front of him.  He's a bigger, stronger version of Vera who can play progressively, and at the same age as Vera (27) is a great addition to the midfield.

The pairing of HH and Coco should mean we'll see a drastic shift in the way the Dynamo go forward.  There is no more Darwin Quintero, meaning there is no #10 to play the ball through.  Coco really came on last year, especially as a progressive midfielder.  There weren't many better at taking defenders on regularly the way Coco was last year.  His 53 successful dribbles were 16th best in MLS, and his 69.7% success rate was second behind only Thiago Almada (71.2%) of players that attempted at least 34 dribbles.  His 170 passes completed into the final 1/3rd was 12th best in MLS, and his 128 progressive passes ranked 28th.  Coco has problems making that final play, but improved in every attacking ratio (GCA/90, key passes, passing %, dribble rate) last year, and at the age of 23 you can expect him to continue to uptick.  Coco is a true box-to-box midfielder, and partnered with HH will demand a lot from the players in front of him.  

While the results didn't trend with Hector Herrera, he was statistically brilliant for the Dynamo last year.  Hector Herrera brought something the midfield was desperately missing: A guy who can burn you with any pass at any time.  Herrera is a deadly accurate passer, especially downfield to players on the run. (Like this beauty to Sebas vs. Montreal).

How about that pass from Héctor Herrera. 👀 🎯 pic.twitter.com/dC1s5Gihb3

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) August 14, 2022

Herrera, at 32, has lost a step and has trouble keeping up with pacier MLS attackers, but he's extremely smart and knows how to position himself well.  He was successful at 70% of the tackles he attempted last year, and he turned those into passes sprayed all over the place.  Herrera was extremely poised on the ball and seemed completely unbothered by his opposing mark most of the time.  He was an instant impact from the second he stepped on the field, but many times the person on the other end of his passes wasn't up to the task.  Was he worth the price Ted Segal paid?  If you look at the results: no.  Is he a cornerstone piece that the Dynamo can build off of? Hopefully.  He needs playmakers and players around him.  He's not going to win you games by himself, but can definitely win you games.  His success will depend on the wing players added this winter panning out, and the defenders behind him shutting down attacks.  Regardless of the results, he's one of the better central midfielders in MLS.  Statistically, there are few even on his level.

What's really telling about the future of this midfield and the direction that they are heading is that they dropped Darwin Quintero, Memo Rodriguez, Mattias Vera, and Darwin Ceren and only brought in Artur as a replacement.  This should speak volumes about what they think of their two most intriguing academy products: Brooklyn Raines and Juan Castilla.  Both of these guys are hyperactive, tenacious defenders who will get the ball back and get it forward quickly.  Raines is a blur who flies all over the field, gets the ball at his feet, and wants to take people on. While he's young and still has a lot to learn, you could tell from his few first-team appearances in the USOC that he's a player, and he's not scared of MLS-level defenders or attackers. When Castilla is on, he's a wrecking ball of a ball winner in the midfield.  If you watched DynaDos this year, Castilla always caught your attention from the way he went after the ball. There has been a lot of conversation lately about the plan for Castilla, who put on a tremendous show for Columbia's U20 team this past week.  As of now, these two are the ONLY options off the bench for Ben Olsen, and along with Charles Auguste make up the midfield bench for the Dynamo (as of today) in 2023.  In my opinion, this is an awesome mix of featured midfielders with the ability to get Castilla and Raines on the field in order to develop.  It shouldn't be surprising for both of them to get between 700-1000 MLS minutes and make a combined 10-15 starts.  I would think that as Training camp goes on the Dynamo would look at a couple of things: (1) Utilizing Bassi in DQ's role from a year ago (2) A veteran midfielder to add depth, just in case.....(3) which formation is the best use of this collective group.  This isn't a sexy midfield, but it should be a very effective one.

Forwards: 

Sebastian Ferreira, Thor Úlfarsson, Baird, Ivan Franco, Amine Bassi, Nelson Quiñones, Beto Avila, Ifunanyachi Achara

Sebastian Ferreira was worth every penny.  The biggest transfer fee in Dynmao history, DP slot, $1.2 million dollar salary, all of it was worth the show that he put on over the 2022 campaign.  We all know the midfield strike against Austin F.C., and the touch and control in the above goal vs. Montreal, but add to that his brace vs. San Jose (Match Day 6), his 1 goal - 2 assist evisceration of LA Galaxy (Match Day 12), the poise and calm in front of net in both goals of a brace against Nashville, all while never getting the service he needed to be a truly dominant force in this league.  Ferreira only managed 65 shots for the year (26th in the league). Ferreira can be a 20-goal scorer in MLS.  There should be no doubt about that, the only thing that will stop him from doing that is the guys he plays with.  And the guys that he's been surrounded by are a big question for next year.  Iván Franco comes to Houston from Libertad in Paraguay.  The former teammate of Sebastian Ferreira, Franco once showed enormous promise scoring 11 goals and notching 5 assists in 40 total starts at the age of 18.  In the last three seasons, between various nagging injuries and a knee sprain, he saw a sharp drop in minutes played.  He does rack up assists at a high rate, notching 5 in 900 minutes played last year.  He plays nice through balls, he strikes the ball well, he can put it in the back of the net, but is opportunistic, and he plays mostly left wing (which the Dynamo are in desperate need of). What might be the most vital is that he's played with Sebastian Ferreira before, serving 2 seasons (2020, 2021) at Libertad with the Dynamo feature attacker.  The opposite wing will be occupied by either Corey Baird, Amine Bassi, or Nelson Quiñones.  Baird came on strong at the end of last year, posting 2 goals and 4 assists over his last 8 appearances (all starts).  He's a high-energy worker and might have found his niche playing on Ferreira's right side.  Newcomer Bassi is a solid technical player who has played the bulk of his career in the French 2nd Division.  He hasn't factored much for Metz the last two years and hasn't registered a goal or assist since 2020 when he played for Barnsley in the Championship.  The 24-year-old has played the bulk of his minutes as an attacking midfielder (FC Nancy-Lorraine) and has registered 28 goals and 23 assists in 145 appearances.  The honest report here is none of us should know what to expect from Bassi.  There's competition at RW, and he's never been an overly productive player.  He could be a perfect fit, or he could be another disappointing International Slot player.  The most intriguing may be the youngster Quiñones.  The 20-year-old is a burner, plays direct, has the chance to be a Dynamic winger in this league.  While he has a long way to go to, he could be the RW compliment this team needs. We could also see Thor at RW, or in a 2 strikers system (4-4-2) like Olsen used early in his DC United days.  Thor will definitely be in the mix in some way, after scoring 4 goals and 1 assist in his debut season.

Head Coach:

When Ben Olsen was hired as Coach, I read a lot of posts on Twitter, Reddit, and Big Soccer with a common theme: "Same old Dynamo." The pragmatic in me completely disagrees with this take.  Ben Olsen is not a guy with no professional head coaching experience known mostly for his ability to take youth teamers to the first team.  Olsen has 378 games under his belt as manager of DC United, and has the 9th most wins of any Coach in MLS history. He's had the best record in the Western Conference twice, and also had the worst record in the conference twice.  Is he a sexy hire?  Absolutely not.  What he IS is more qualified than anyone we've seen on the touchline in Houston in a very long time.  "Ben is an experienced MLS head coach with a strong track record of building playoff teams and developing young players,” Pat Onstad said in the press release “Ben is the right leader for our club as we begin making significant changes to field a more proactive, younger and competitive team in the coming years. We are excited to welcome Ben and his family to the city of Houston and we are already hard at work on the 2023 season.”

The only thing Dynamo fans want to know is "will he make the playoffs?" With a shaky backline, an aging goalkeeper, and many new attackers that need to adjust to the style of play in MLS, the answer is unlikely.  "Can the Dynamo make the playoffs with Olsen?" Absolutely.  He's proven he can do it, when the talent is there.  "Can he win the Cup?" That has yet to be seen.

Olsen was known in the early days of his D.C. United tenure for a 4-4-2, and a hybrid 4-2-3-1.  Recently he had bounced between a fluid 4-3-3 and a 3-4-3.  His teams are normally solid defensively, and have always had the ability to strike quickly when needed.  Mostly, his teams have had a quality striker paired with a solid midfield.  While Pat said that Paulo Nagamura was also the right hire, and I'm not sure Ben Olsen is THE answer, I do believe he's an obvious upgrade tactically and with his experience over Paulo, Tab, and Wilmer Cabrera.  

Synopsis: 

Pat Onstad routinely talks about a  "Proactive" approach to soccer.  After a year of watching it, I still have no idea what he means by it.  What can be absolutely sure is that he, Asher Mendehlsohn, and Ted Segal are 100% committed to making this not only a better team, but a better organization.  The new players will need time to gel, and adjust to the physicality of MLS.  As we saw with Sebastian Ferreira last year (who didn't score his first five games), the pace, speed, and physicality of MLS can take time to get used to, especially when playing in lower-tier leagues like Paraguay and 2. Ligue.  Finding the space and timing on the wings to be on the other end of a HH pass will take time on the training pitch.  Connecting the back line and knowing "who" and "when" Hadebe and Steres are marking will take time for the additions at FB and Artur.  This (on paper) should be a better team, but are they playoff capable is the question?

The Dynamo will have to answer the bell early as the first half of their schedule is extremely challenging. Cincinnati, New England, Austin, NYFC, San Jose, LA Galaxy, Seattle, NYRB and others, there's not a night off, especially with the first two on the road.  This team has lost a lot of goal scoring and playmaking in DQ and Fafa, they lost a key CB in Tim Parker who the neither replaced nor upgraded.  There are still lots of questions as to who will play, how they will play, and whether some of the new players can play at this level.  There are questions around whether Ben Olsen is the guy who won the Western Conference in the regular season, the coach who got bounced in the first round of the playoffs, or the guy who won the wooden spoon.  There are soo many questions that can't be answered until we actually see this team on the field, the only thing we know is that it will be very different from the one we saw last year.

Prediction:

With the league expanding to 18 playoff teams this year, there is a decent chance the Dynamo sneak into the playoffs.  Olsen will have them more organized, despite the uncertainty around the back line they will concede under 50 goals for the first time since 2017.  Sebastian Ferreira will be one of the most productive strikers in MLS, and the Dynamo will finish 9th in the Western Conference.  They will make a run to the round of 16 in the U.S. Open Cup, and will benefit from the additional playoff slots.  If they do get in, an early exit will be anticipated.

Thanks again for reading, 

Remember to always #HoldItDown and stay #ForeverOrange

Brian