The Dynamo and the Superdraft: Missed opportunities to build a winner.

There is one clear-cut spot that the Dynamo front office has to improve: Finding gems in the SuperDraft.  It's a place to find young talent that's cheap, and....just like in other drafts from other leagues, if you know how to use your assets you can build a competitive team.  The Dynamo have not done that.  In fact, since the Dynamo selected Will Bruin with the 11th pick in 2011, the only player they've drafted that's had any sort of impact on their roster is Sam Junqua.  Some played a handful of games before being shipped out after a year (Cochran, Holland, Steeves). Most never made an appearance.  While the Superdraft is ALWAYS a crapshoot, what hurts is looking back players that were on the board that are currently All-Star Caliber players when the Dynamo made their selection.  That's not even to mention the players that have become role players, bench guys, or guys that simply fill in from time to time.  With only one Home Grown (Memo), and nothing from the draft for a decade, the Dynamo front office (more importantly their scouting department) has failed miserably in two vital building blocks to creating a quality roster on a budget.  

While I don't agree with everyone that Matt Jordan is THE reason the Dynamo have been soo bad over the last decade, I will say this: he should probably be fired for his draft performance alone.  The Dynamo haven't drafted well since Kinnear was roaming the sidelines here, and a decade of pulling absolutely nothing out of the draft has completely killed them.  With no draft hits, and nothing coming out of the academy, the Dynamo have had to result to veterans willing to come here on free transfers.  While I love Maynor Figueroa, convincing a 36-year-old to come play for the league minimum (which is less than a teacher in HISD makes) probably isn't going to make you a viable long-term winner.  If you look at teams like Portland, Seattle, and even newcomers like Atlanta, Minnesota, and Nashville have had some hits in the draft.  Austin looks like they have a pretty solid player in Daniel Periera, in their first-ever pick.  And if we are comparing teams in Texas, the team in Frisco has a really long list of SuperDraft hits to go along with their productive academy.  

Player Taken						Players Missed On:
Drafts	MLS MInutes Played		Round	Pick			Round	Pick:	By:
2014	1887	A.J. Cochran	1	16		Tommy McNamara	2	20	Chivas
	462	Mark Sherrod	2	32		Chris Duvall	2	22	NY Red Bulls
	0	Michael Lisch	3	54		Daniel Lovitz	2	24	Toronto FC
						Jared Watts	2	33	Colorado Rapids
						Aaron Long	2	36	Portland Timbers
total	2349
2015	31	Zach Steinberger	1	8		Tim Parker	1	13	Vancouver Whitecaps
	0	Oumar Ballo	2	30		Axel Sjöberg	1	14	Colorado Rapids
	364	Rob Lovejoy	2	36		Christian Roldan	1	16	Seattle Sounders
	90	Taylor Hunter	3	49		Amadou Dia	1	20	Sporting KC
						Tyler Miller	2	33	Seattle Sounders
	485
2016		Traded to Philedelphia-> drafted Fabian Hebers	1	6		Richie Layea	1	7	Orlando City
	0	Ivan Magalhães	2	26		Andrew Tarbell	1	8	San Jose Earthquakes
	0	T.J. Casner	3	47		Tsubasa Endoh	1	9	Toronto FC
						Tony Alfaro	2	27	Seattle Sounders
						Matt Turner	undrafted
	0
2017		Traded to Timbers for $100k in allocation money,->draft Jeremy Ebobise	1	4		Jackson Yuell	1	6	San Jose Earthquakes
	25	Joe Holland	1	10		Julian Gressel	1	8	Atlanta United
	0	Jake McGuire	2	30		Chris Odoi-Atsem	1	12	D. C. United
	0	Danilo Radjen	2	36		Jacori Hayes	1	18	FC Dallas
	0	Robby Sagel	4	70		Nick DePuy	1	19	Montreal Impact
						Stefan Cleveland	2	26	Chicago Fire
						Shamit Shome	2	41	Montreal Impact
						Brandt Bronico	3	47	Chicago Fire
						Jack Elliot	4	67	Philadelphia Union
	25
2018	0	Michael Nelson	1	20		Alex Roldan	1	22	Seattle Sounders
	28	Mac Steeves	2	43		Daniel Musovski	2	30	San Jose Earthquakes
	0	Pablo Aguilar	3	59		Tom Barlow	2	39	NY Red Bulls
	0	Sheldon Sullivan	3	66		Luis Argudo	3	67	Columbus Crew
	0	Manny Padilla	4	89
	28
2019	1043	Sam Junqua	1	8		Tajon Buchanan	1	9	New England Revolution
	0	Andrew Samuels	2	33		DeJuan Jones	1	11	New England Revolution
	0	Brad Dunwell	3	56		Chase Gaspar	1	15	Minnesota United
						Kamal Miller	2	27	Orlando City
						Hassani Dotson	2	31	Minnesota United
						Amar Sejdič	2	34	Montreal Impact
	1043
2020	0	Garrett Mclaughlin	1	8		Alistair Johnston	1	11	Nashville SC
	0	Luka Prpa	2	34		Tanner Beason	1	12	San Jose Earthquakes
	0	Kyle Edwards	4	84		Joey Dezart	2	31	Orlando City
						Jon Bell	2	38	San Jose Earthquakes
	0					Zach McGraw	3	68	Portland Timbers
	3930

I see it on Twitter every year, the Eurosnobs mocking the MLS SuperDraft. You can absolutely build a winner through the draft if you know what you're doing.  Take New England for example.  Andrew Farrell, #1 in 2013.  Brandon Bye was taken #8 in the 2018 Draft.  In 2019, they got both Tajon Buchanon and DuJuan Jones, and they selected Henry Kessler #6 in 2020.  Add to that the fact that Matt Turner was signed as an undrafted free agent out of college.  Matt Polster for $363,000 from Rangers, Charles Gil for $1.65mil and you have a pretty solid lineup for not much money.  Of course, it also helps if you have $11mil to throw at Buska and Bou in one offseason. The draft has built the backbone of their roster, and transfers built the glitz.  And before you scream "It's one season!" or "It's Bruce Arena!" realize the amount of starters and key players they got straight from the draft.  DeJuan Jones, drafted #11 in 2019, has played almost the same number of MLS minutes (3,804) as all the Dynamo players drafted from 2014-2021....combined (3,930).  New England had gotten a lot of flack for the way things had been run in recent years, but one place that has set them up for being first in the Eastern Conference is the draft.

Seattle got both Roldans (Christian - 2015, Alex - 2018) through the SuperDraft.  In 2015, they traded a conditional first-round pick to Toronto for Stefan Frei.  The pick ended up being involved in a myriad of trades, resulting in Colorado getting Axel Sjöberg.  Seattle, in effect, came away with Christian Roldan and Stefan Frei in the first round of 2015.  That's a draft that makes any MLS teams for the better.  In 2016, Seattle signed the winner of the MAC Hermann Trophy and Pac-12 player of the year Jordan Morris to the biggest Home Grown Player contract at the time. They got Stefan Cleveland for a conditional first-round pick in 2020.  Does Seattle splash money on high talent attackers?   Yes. Raul Ruidiaz and Nicolas Lodeiro came with a nice price tag, but Seattle has also pulled some really nice players out of the draft. You add the draft, homegrowns, and the ability to go spend $3-$7 mil on a player every year, and you've got a consistent winner.  The main reason is if you are drafting and producing Homegrowns, you can spend that money on one player instead of 5.  Seattle has provided a roadmap to do this and has done it better than anyone.

In 2017, Atlanta United hit on both Miles Robinson (2nd pick) and Julian Gressel (8th pick). The next year, the found John Gallagher who made 16 appearances scoring 4 goals before they got $225,000 in Allocation money from Austin for him.  He's made 7 starts for Austin this year.

Minnesota United has landed two starters (Hassani Dotson, Chase Gaspar), and also picked up Mason Toye (7th overall) in 2018. Toye was flipped for $600,000 in General Allocation Money.  Minnesota may have given up on Toye a little too early, as he's scored 7 goals in 799 minutes so far this year, and he's only 22 years old.

Philadelphia traded midfielder Cristian Maidana and forward Andrew Wenger to us for an undisclosed amount of general allocation money, targeted allocation money, and the #6 pick in 2016. Philadelphia used that pick to snag Fabian Herbers.  While Herbers hasn't had a spectacular career, he's a solid MLS vet who's logged over 5,600 minutes between Philadelphia and Chicago.  Maidana played one season for us before leaving on a free.  He pitched in 3 goals and 4 assists in 1700 minutes. While Maidana was the player we were after, Wenger made a longer impact. Wenger made 56 starts (75 appearances) and plugged in 4800 minutes tallying 10 goals and 5 assists.   Wenger was out of pro soccer by 2018, but Herbers is still plugging along at Chicago.

In 2017 Portland gave us #10 selection in the 2017 SuperDraft, an international roster slot for the 2017 season, and $100,000 in general allocation money in exchange for #4 pick, and got Jeremy Ebobisse.  While the speedster has been inconsistent at times, he logged 26 goals and 6 assists and made 54 starts for Portland.  His 89 appearances and 5,144 minutes in MLS are more than every Dynamo draft pick going all the way back to 2011.  He could have looked really nice with Quioto, Elis, Erick Torres, and Mauro Monatas in Wilmer Cabrera's system.  Instead, we picked up Joe Holland who accumulated a whopping 25 MLS minutes and was out of professional soccer after 4 years.  Holland last played for Birmingham F.C. in USL during the 2019 season, amassing 474 minutes over 15 appearances.

What will Ethan Bartlow be?  Who knows, but with signing Parker and Hadebe through the next three years he won't be anything important here.....unless he can play full back.  Bartlow looks like he has upside, but to date hasn't made an appearance for anyone, or played a single professional minute.  One thing is for sure, the Dynamo need to find direction.  Honestly, they need a scouting department overhaul. I don't know how you go a decade without drafting a single viable player, but the Dynamo have managed to do it.  In today's MLS, can you build a championship team through the draft alone?  No, absolutely not.   However, there is a lot of talent picked up in the draft every year, especially in recent years.  I wrote earlier about how the front office lacks creativity, this is part of it.  The Dynamo need to be able to mine talent from every available resource, and ever since Kinnear left Houston, this has been the worst talent acquisition resource.  The draft has actually been worse than our academy if you can believe it.  If we are ever to be anything here, we need to fix both.

Thanks again for reading, 

#HoldItDown and stay #ForeverOrange.

This week's losses have fans heated. Is it time to clean house?

11 games.  11 stinking games.  That's about a third of an MLS season.  It's been just over 2 months since we've seen a game end and the Dynamo came away with all three points. I was still teaching classes the last time the Dynamo won a game.  This summer has been miserable, not just because of all the rain, and all the heat, and because......you know.......2021 is a soul-sucking banshee, but because we discovered that this team isn't all that good.  There's plenty of blame to go around.  From the previous owners to the GM, to Tab, and the rest of the coaching staff.  There's plenty of blame to put down on the players too, I mean....Zarek Valentine has been getting his fair share the last few weeks.  So, we should just tear it all apart and clean house right?  Right?

If you're wondering what my answer is, it's pretty simple: No.  I don't know if I'm an outlier here, but I know I stand very alone on message boards and Reddit.  Do I think we can find a better coach than Tab Ramos?  No, not really.  Is Tab probably going to be shown the door in the offseason?  Most likely.  Do I think there are better GMs than Matt Jordan?  Absolutely. Do I think Matt Jordan is the worst GM ever?  No, I don't.  He's found some pretty good gems in his time in Houston, and he's had a few busts.  There are guys that the jury is still out on (Bajamich). 

 Let me be clear.  I think Tab is a good coach.  I think he's tactically sound, I feel he's transformed the defense this offseason, and Matt Jordan helped him do it.  The concern has always been where the goals are going to come from.  I've been saying that since before the season started.  He's soo desperate to find a player that can create goals, we are literally picking guys of the street (Griffen Dorsey) and throwing them on the field.  We played a guy yesterday (Coco Carrasquilla) that hadn't even practiced with the team yet, as he had just got his visa that morning.  "TAB'S TOO STUCK TO HIS SYSTEM!" He's used 4 different formations this year.  He runs a fluid 4-3-3, that bounces between a 4-2-3-1, a 4-1-4-1 and a 4-4-2 depending on who is playing and who they are playing against.  "IT'S A TIRED, BORING SYSTEM!" The system is generating the 9th most shots per 90 in the league, with 3 holding midfielders and no real #10.  Those shots are coming from the 8th closest distance in MLS (16.8 yards/shot).  The problem is the guys taking those shots just aren't that good.  

"WE NEED TO OVERHAUL THIS ROSTER!" Uh, we've pretty much been doing that since the beginning of last year.  Since the end of last season, we've massively upgraded both CB spots, added two really nice midfielders (and maybe a third), upgraded both wings, and added one solid striker and during the season went out and got another.  Sam Junqua has taken over for Adam Lundkvist at LB. We've added Teenage Hadebe, a backup striker who is fairly solid (Corey Baird), and a young creative midfielder in the last couple of weeks. The roster overhaul has been going on since Tab took over.  Now it's time to let it gel.  This has nothing to do with "continuity through ownership change". But teams need continuity.  Playing without your best 3 best attacking players (Pasher, Urruti, and Quintero) last night didn't help either.  

If I blame Tab for anything this year, it's for not giving Quintero a single start despite fielding a team that is struggling to score.  Tyler Pasher is our best creative player, he's played 591 minutes.  That's about 1/3rd of the minutes the Dynamo have played this year.  He's second on the team in goals and leads them in assists in 1/2 the touches of Memo, Mattias Vera, and Fafa Picault and about 1/3rd of Joe Corona's. Do I blame him for Zarek playing soo many minutes?  No, because we don't have anyone else to put there.  "BUT, BIZAMA!" Bizama isn't an MLS player.  Tab didn't think so, neither did any other MLS team out there.  We can see how he does at Charlotte, but the Dynamo have a record of 2-1-9 when he starts over the last three years.  I don't know that no MLS team wanted him this transfer window, but I strongly suspect they didn't.  That was a Matt Jordan bust, but most likely was a scouting department bust.  But if the guy that brought you Elis, Quioto, Manotas, Boniek, Ceren, and others says this guy can play, wouldn't you trust him? Tab's putting guys in position to make plays.  They don't make plays.  You know why they don't make plays?  Because they aren't that good.  That's not on Tab, but he'll take the fall for it.  The guy Tab trusted to make plays this year (Memo) can't, and no one in this town wants to admit it.  That's on Tab too.  He's put Memo in important positions in every game, and Memo isn't getting the job done.  Memo isn't a #10, he's more of an #8 with a little #6.  Honestly, the way Memo defends the wings I'd like to see him play RB.  At least that'd give us a guy who can defend and progress the ball down the field, maybe get a cross in while he's at it.

This is rambling I know.  I'm frustrated.  Ted Segal needs to figure out what to do to right this ship.  I don't feel like Tab is the problem.  I don't really feel Matt Jordan was THE problem, but I agree he could have done a better job.  It's tuff to evaluate how good we should be, when we are near the bottom of the league in spending every year.  There are multiple expansion teams with higher payrolls than us.  I think Jordan is gone, and probably Tab too.  I'd give each another season with new ownership and better support before I make that decision though. I'd give each another season regardless since this has been a rebuild project since day 1.  We've been rebuilding forever since Kinnear left, this is just a rebuild I'd actually give time to. We are soo impatient to win now, we want to bypass all the important things it takes to get us there. You want to build an academy from scratch?  It takes time.  You want to develop young players?  It takes time.  You want to rebuild facilities?  It takes time.  Winning.....real winning, takes time.  Sure, you can rebuild an MLS team in a year or two, but not even the great Zlatan got LAG to the playoffs every year.  To build a lasting structure takes time, or else it crumbles and fades away. With as many changes as this team has made in the last year, they are still two players away from contending for anything.  They need another wing that can actually make plays, and they need a midfielder that can break down defenses from the middle of the field and give service to Urruti and Pasher. They also need Pasher to be healthy and on the field. I stated before the season started this team wasn't good enough to make the playoffs because they didn't have enough scoring options.  That's when I thought Darwin was going to play.  Clean House?  Sure.....why not?  Just be careful what you ask for.  Things actually could be a whole lot worse around here. 

Dynamo fans taking up stock in the pink stuff.

 What is there to say that hasn't been said already?  At least this game was......different.  Instead of a really solid defensive performance spoiled by 1 ridiculous error and a complete lack of finishing off possessions, it was a series of errors, a complete lapse in composure that led to being down a man and being consistently outworked to the ball through the course of a game.  The Dynamo lost this game. Not because Austin FC was hands down better than us, but because we consistently shot ourselves in the foot.  Look at the first goal.  Everyone is going to point at Zarek.  But the real problem started long before that.  Joe Corona started the entire ordeal with an awful headed clearance that went six inches behind him.  No Dynamo defender (and there were 6 of them) reacted to the ball, Berhalter simply spun, snagged the ball and fired it to the penalty arc.  As the Dynamo were now chasing, and reacting late, they completely lost shape.  Tim Parker was in the middle of 3 green shirts, and was the only one there.  Cecilio Dominguez chested the ball perfectly past Parker to Pochettino, who took a good touch and fired one of the back post.  Call it a terrible reaction, call it bad luck, (it was probably a little of both) Valentine reacted just well enough to blast it in the back of the net for his second own goal in 3 games.  6 minutes in, and we are now down 1-0 against a team that can't score.  You're welcome Verde FC, you're very welcome indeed.

The Dynamo actually looked good going forward in the early part of this game.  Corey Baird, Tyler Pasher, Fafa Picault, and Joe Corona were actually putting a lot of pressure on Verde's backline.  Baird makes nice runs off the ball, both into the box and into the wide spaces behind the fullbacks.  That's why Darwin Ceren's red card in the 20th minute was soo devastating.  

Darwin Cerén is a veteran.  He's 31 years old with 8 years of MLS experience and has been playing professionally since he was 16.  He just got back from having a really good run in the Gold Cup for El Salvadore and put in a nice 90 minutes against RSL. He has to know better than this.  Yes, I know Sebastian Berhalter was tackling you.  You go down.  You draw a foul, maybe a yellow, and you fight another play.  If you want to retaliate, you let him know who you are the next time he gets the ball.  If you want him off you, you swipe his arms.  You throw an elbow to the head and it's a straight red every time unless you play for El Tri and it's in a CONCACAF competition.  20 minutes in.  70 minutes + Stoppage time to be a man down is too long for any team.  Twice in the first 20 minutes, the Dynamo did the inexcusable.  They tried to fight back, only minutes later Corey Baird got loose behind the defense (which he's really good at by the way) and fired a left-footer that Brad Stuver was able to knock away.  Tyler Pasher wanted it more than anyone else and was able to get his left foot on the ball.  It went top corner, and the game tied 1:1.

The goal was actually a gift from Julio Cascante.  I don't really know what he saw, but he passed the ball directly to Mattias Vera with tons of space and 3 Orange Shirts streaking towards the goal.  Vera laid a nice pass out in front of Baird who went and got it.  Austin really gifted us one back here, but props to the guys for actually making a play.  

Of course, this ended in the third big blow of the night, as Tyler Pasher went down with an injury right after. The 45th-minute goal by Pochettino wasn't just him being in the right place at the right time.  It was Austin FC beating us to not one, but two balls as Diego Fagúndez chased down the ball headed out of the box, and Pochettino snatched his shot and fired it to the near post between two Dynamo sliding defenders and Maric trying to second save.  The Dynamo went into halftime down 1:2, although Brad Davis declared they were "within striking distance here" right after the second half opened, you didn't really feel that was logical.  We can't score, and Austin's midfield and Wings were winning their battles convincingly.  Berhalter, Pochettino and Ring were dominating the game.  Valentine and Junqua (who have actually been solid defensively over the last three games) were getting run off the field by Dominguez and Fagundez. Even Parker and Hadebe were caught out of position and slow to the ball at times.  

When Dominguez's header off the cross found the back of the net in the 56th minute, you knew it was done. Dominguez just beat Valentine to the ball, and got a good enough head on it to get it past Marco. There was no pressure on the ball as it came into the box, Fagundez dropped it in a perfect spot, and it was 3:1. Despite an amazing effort goal by Fafa to cut it back to 1, playing a man down for 70 minutes against a team that was just throwing guys forward was too much to overcome.  We lost shape, Austin ran us to death with the possession game, and we couldn't hit a counter despite having the two fastest guys on the field up top.  Baird was often all the way down in the defending corner, giving us no chance to counter effectively.  Losing Pasher (again) really hurt, and while I like Griffen Dorsey and his effort.....he can't do what Pasher can do.  This game was over long before it was over.

On another note (and feel free to comment), did anyone else think it was odd the way the game just ended with the ball at Memo's feet outside the box?  I've never seen a game end like that, it was just.....strange.

Thoughts:

I understand Tab has to rotate the squad.  3 games in 8 days is a load, despite all the time off.  Discipline scenarios and Gold Cup rosters have led to part of that as well.  We have 3 guys on the Health and Safety list now as well (Urruti, Quintero, Lassiter).  I'm still not on the "Tab Out" train yet.  I'm not even on the "Matt Jordon Out" bus.  There has been an insane amount of roster turnover on this team in 3 months.  Their best offensive player has missed over half the season.  They don't have a single midfielder who actually poses a treat with the dribble or the pass.  Despite all this, I'm sick of saying "well, we almost......" or "we were right there if we just could have......" or "if it hadn't been for ______'s mental lapse" we would have won the game.  It's a common thread, this team is constantly costing themselves points.  Our fullbacks might be the worst pair in the league and our midfield is abysmal in attack.  What do we do?  I don't know.  Hopefully, Adalberto Carrasquilla can actually play. It'd be nice if he could be to the midfield what Teenage Hadebe has been to the backline.

Despite all my heartburn, I'm still trying to #HoldItDown and I will always be #ForeverOrage

Thanks for reading,

Brian