It's no secret. Everyone who follows this league knows it. If you want to turn your franchise around quickly, just drop some cash on a goal scorer. Carlos Vela, Josef Martinez, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Bradley Wright-Phillips, David Villa, Jozy Altidore......goals win games. If you don't have one guy who can do it, just keep throwing people forward until you get one. In today's MLS, goals are at an all-time premium. From 2015 to 2019, only 3 teams have allowed under 1 goal per game during the regular season. While all three (2015 Colorado Rapids, 2017 Sporting KC, and 2018 NY Red Bulls) made the playoffs, only 1 won their conference regular season title. None won the supporters shield, none of them won MLS Cup. The best defensive teams of the last 10 years (2012 Sporting KC, and 2017 Sporting KC) were both bounced by average Dynamo teams in the first round. In 2015 Colorado made it to the Conference Finals before getting sent home by Seattle.
The 2018 NY Red Bulls are the only team to win their conference and NOT lead it in goals scored since 2013. In MLS, you don't win by packing it in and getting clean sheets, you win by putting it in the back of the net. Scoring 50 goals in a season is a good watermark on your playoff chances. From 2011-2019, the number of 50+ goal scoring teams increased every year. The percentage of those teams making the playoffs has grown along with it. From 41.6% in 2015, to 83.3% in 2019. This has been accentuated by the increasing number of 60, 70, and now 80 goal scoring teams. And while a lockdown defensive team made the MLS Cup final last year, this is becoming a rarer and rarer case.
But, you don't have to have an attacker that scores 30 goals to make the playoffs in MLS. You just need a team capable of getting 50. Yes, MLS cup and Supporters Shield trophies should be the goal for this front office, just putting a playoff caliber squad together needs to be the immediate focus. For years now, Dynamo fans have called for a big name player. While that's a direction to go, I think we can all learn from Zlatan and the L.A. Galaxy it's not necessarily THE way to go. The Galaxy where never a serious contender for the league with him, they didn't even make the playoffs his first year in Los Angeles. While he made them better, the second he left they fell off the table and where one of the worst teams in the league.
Last year's Dynamo team was on pace to be a type of offense that contended for a playoff position. Averaging 1.64 goals through the first 10 games of the season, including their abysmal performance in the MLS is Back tournament. The team had just found traction in Tab Ramos' fluid, high pressing and quick hitter offense when the news came that Alberth Elis was moving to Portugal. And even though Web Tilton helped him put his bags on the plane, no one should have been happy about his departure. Over the 5 games before the transfer was announced, the Dynamo had picked up 10 points and outscored KC (twice), Dallas, Minnesota, and Colorado 12-4, all playoff teams. The offense had absolutely no punch after he left. Manotas was a no-show almost the entirety of the season, and Memo Rodriguez isn't the type of threat to open things up for those two in the middle. Ariel Lassiter? While Lassiter had an excellent debut against Minnesota, scoring 2 goals and connecting on 14/15 passes in 36 minutes of play, he failed to make an impact anywhere close to that over the rest of the season. Nico Hansen played well just enough to not get a contract offer, from anyone.Tab was soo desperate Sam Junqua was used up top as well as Nico Lemoine. The Dynamo managed just one win in the 12 games after Elis left, picking up only 7 points. The offense only managed 12 goals in 12 games, and with the midfield pusing higher and higher up trying to create turnovers, they got burned in the back. They were outscored 23-12 over the last 12 games of the season, and looked punchless. Their one win of that span took 9 amazing saves by Marko Maric. But this is a new year, with new faces. While we can complain about the Dynamo front office all we'd like, they did make a few moves this offseason which could help address these needs.
But, can this team get to 50 goals. That's the question. Can this team, as currently constructed, find the 50 goals needed to make the playoffs? With the addition of Tim Parker in the offseason, and some help in the defensive midfield, this should be a drastically improved defense. Can the offense find it's footing and get the timely goals they need to win games? They have plenty of new faces in the lineup this year. Let's take a look at what's come in, and maybe a few surprise faces from last year.
(1) Fafa Picault
Fafa brings one thing to the table that the Dynamo sorely lack: Speed. Picault has legitimate pace on the outside and is a threat in both the press and in the counterattack. Depending on which wing he plays, and how Tab Ramos lines up, Fafa should be a solid addition to the Dynamo roster. Fafa has explosive straight line speed, speed that few MLS backs can compete with. This should pair well with Tab's high pressing, counterattacking play. Fafa has shown the ability to score, given that he was a double digit goal scorer (10) as recently as 2018. Last year, despite the drop in playing time and losing his starting job in Dallas, Fafa's per 90 minute averages where consistent with his best years in Philadelphia. At the age of 30, Fafa should bring a stabilizing, veteran presence to the front line. Matched with Darwin Quintero's passing ability all Fafa should have to do is run, and stay onside. He should open things up for the middle with his runs and finishing ability.
Fafa won't necesserily be valued for his ability to score goals, as his ability to help generate goals. Can he win the ball in the attacking third and help create a quick strike? Can his runs open up the middle for Quintero and the strikers? Can he make the right pass in the final third to help create a goal? While he will be needed to finish when the chance presents itself, Picault will be needed to help the offense flow. Fafa could potentially be the most important pickup of the Dynamo this offseason.
Maximiliano Urruti
Urruti quietly had one of his most efficient seasons of his career last year. His Shot on Target % and goals per shot were by far the highest of his career. His goals/90 minutes was his highest since 2014, and his distance per shot was the closest of his career. While his minutes and role where drastically reduced, he really flourished in Thierry Henry's system. Urruti has always been an effective goal scorer, although never a big time one. Urruti is a smart player, who finds soft spots in front of the net and capitalizes on a big right foot.
Maximiliano is a crafty vet, who at 29 years old has seen his production and minutes slip over the last two years. Several questions remain about how he fits in Tab Ramos's scheme. Can he create pressure up top? Will he be able to capitalize on the counter attack? With Darwin Quintero, Fafa, and Memo giving him support, there should be pockets for him to find. If he can hold up to the rigors of playing at the pace Tab wants to play, he could see a revitalization to his 2017 form, when he scored 12 goals for FC Dallas. The spot is his for the taking, as his primary competition is Christian Ramirez. Unless something unforeseen happens he should be the go-to guy in 2021.
Christian Ramirez
Can I just say that I like Christian Ramirez? He's such a good dude. Taking the time to raise funds for the people here in Houston that suffered from the Winter Storm, and then the Lion King shirt with Memo, donating those profits to charity, he's just a solid human being. He's also a solid striker, but not a highly efficient one. Since his days terrorizing the NASL as part of Minnesota, he has never been able to come anywhere close to that production on an MLS level. And while it's true that he's never been given anywhere near the opportunity he had in Minnesota before the jump to MLS, he is never shown to be anything more than a solid backup striker. While his shooting accuracy is ranked in the upper echelon of the league, his ability to actually get it past the keeper isn't.
Ramirez had a Shot On Target% last year of 53.8%, which ranked 16th in MLS. Down only slightly from the year before (56.5%) when he ranked 6th. Ramirez ranks among the most accurate shooters league wide who's advanced stats and per 90 averages rank favorably with NYCFC's Héber. However, his goal/shot on target percentage of .29 ranks him 137th. Ramirez does a good job finding space and putting the ball on target, but he's not very adept at creating for himself or for others and lacks the clinicalness to put it past the keeper. Ramirez is not a primary goal scorer, but can he be a primary contributor? He has the ability and makeup to be a 10-12 goal scorer-a-season type player in MLS, but whether he will ever be given the opportunity to do so remains to be seen.
With Ramirez, you know what you get. He's not a player with tremendous upside or unlocked potential. He's solid, but limited. Lots of questions still remain on how exactly he'll be used this season. How does Tab manage his minutes with Urruti? Is he given the chance to compete for the starting job? Do Urruti and Ramirez rotate based on matchups? Do they play alongside each other with Quintero shifting to the outside in a 4-4-2 look? I picture Tab switching up all of these scenarios, especially early in the season.
Tyler Pasher
Pasher is in intriguing player. Scoring 21 goals over 47 Regular Season appearances with the Indy-11, the Canadian born forward has a big left foot and a knack for making big plays. Pasher's goal scoring has dramatically improved since moving to Indy after a stint with Swope Park Rangers (including 1 appearance with Sporting KC in 2018) in the USL. Highlighted by last year's 10 goals (5th in USL) in only 1,208 minutes (15 aps/13 starts), Pasher has scored big goals when it counts. In 2019 he scored in each of the first two rounds of the playoffs to help Indy reach the conference finals before eventually succumbing to Louisville FC. Pasher is dangerous off the break, has a nice first touch, and has developed a lethal scoring strike with his left. He can finish nicely on the run as well as bang one up high from outside the box in traffic. He has shown flashes and the ability to create on his own, and take multiple defenders off the dribble.
Final Thoughts
While this will not be a team with a 20+ goal scorer, there could be plenty of goals in it. Darwin, Picault, and Urruti are all capable of scoring 10-12 goals in a season, and have proven it. And while Darwin is capable of a +20 goal and assist season yet again, he needs others around him to help create space. The Dynamo should look more balanced in attack than last year with the guys mentioned above. An emergence from a player such as Mateo Bajamich or Ariel Lassiter could also happen. Bajamich played will in his return to the Argentinian league this fall. While on loan back to Instituto AC, he scored 2 goals over 7 games in the promotion playoffs. At only 21 years old, Bajamich could emerge as a viable option either on the right wing or at the #9.
This is Darwin Quintero's team. The attack will be as successful as he makes it. The Dynamo didn't add a big time goal scorer this offseason, but they didn't need to. They added a bunch of "if's", but if those if's come through they could make the jump to playoff contender.
Thanks for reading.
Brian
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