New Brand, New Faces, New Results? The Magic 8 ball says it's unlikely. Houston Dynamo Outlook 2021

 Major League Soccer Season Preview (2021/2022) – Houston Dynamo

Basics:

Full Name: Houston Dynamo F.C.
Nicknames: Orange Crush, El Naranja (The Orange)
Founded: December 15, 2005
Owners: Gabriel Brener, Oscar De La Hoya, Ben Guill, James Harden, Jake Silverstein
General Manager: Matt Jordan
Stadium – B.B.V.A Stadium

Year Built: 2012

Capacity: 22,039

Attendance: 34,003 (3,400 per match; 8th in MLS)

Trophies: MLS Cup - 2006,2007 MLS Cup (Runners Up) - 2011, 2012; U.S. Open Cup - 2018, North American Super-Liga (Runners Up) - 2008

Kits:

Coach: Tab Ramos

MLS Position: 12th in Western Conference (25th Overall)

U.S. Open Cup Result: Cancelled

Playoff Result: Did not qualify.

CONCACAF Champions League Result: Did not qualify.

Additions: Tim Parker (N.Y. Red Bulls - $475,000 GAM), Maximiliano Urruti (C.F. Montreal - Trade), Fafa Picault (F.C. Dallas - $275,000 GAM), Derrick Jones (Nashville S.C. - $250,000), Joe Corona (M.L.S. Re-Entry Draft), Ethan Bartlow (M.L.S. Draft), Kyle Morton (St. Louis F.C.-Free-Transfer), Tyler Pasher (Indy Eleven - Undisclosed), Ian Hoffman (Karlsruhe F.C. - Undisclosed), Juan Castilla (Academy), Daniel Rios (Academy), Daniel Rios (Homegrown)

Losses: Mauro Manotas (Transfer - Club Tijuana), Kyle Adams (Free Transfer - Real Monarchs), Victor Cabrera (Option Declined), Cody Cropper (F.C. Cincinnati - Free Transfer), Thomas Martinez (Free Transfer - Defensa y Justicia), Ronaldo Pena (Option Declined), Michael Salazar (Option Declined), Wilfred Zahibo (Option Declined), Niko Hansen (Option Declined), Aljaz Struna (C.F. Montreal - trade).

The team 2021/22.

2020/2021 Overview:

The slide continued. A team that has missed the playoffs four out of the last four years suffered through a dismal season, most of it was self imposed. Over the course of the last five years, the Houston Dynamo have placed 10th, 4th, 9th, 10th, and 12th in their conference. Out went Wilfred Cabrera, and in came the highly heralded Tab Ramos.

The fall began with the selling of Alberth Elis. The dynamic forward took with him all explosive play and true counterattacking capabilities. Elis was the most underrated player in MLS over the course of his time in Orange, and La Pantera often wore down opposing defenses and took over games after the 80th minute. After Elis' departure, goals became very hard to come by. Mauro Manotas was non-existent for much of the year, as opposing defenses simply keyed on his every move. No outside threat, and no explosion in counter-attacking play, the offense sputtered. With the value that they got for a player such as Elis, and the way the offense fell apart after he left, you have to wonder why they made the decision to part ways. Admittedly, Elis had them between a rock and a hard place. After offering him the largest contract in Dynamo history (which Elis rejected), they received only a fraction of his worth from Boavista in April. With Elis' showing no intention of resigning with the Dynamo, the Dynamo got severely slighted upon his leaving.

Houston still created chances plenty of chances. In fact, they created the 4th most chances in MLS. Tab's offensive system created the 5th highest Expected Goals (36.1) of any team in MLS. Their 23.09 shot creating actions per 90 minutes also ranked them 4th in the league, and their 405 passes that lead to a shot attempt ranked 3rd. Houston ranked 5th in total shots/90, and 5th in shots on target/90. Tab's high pressing, fluid 4-4-1-1 had no problem creating movement, runs, and chances. The problem wasn't creating chances, it was finishing them. Houston's .025 Goals/Shots on Target ranked tied them for 21st in the league. Mauro Manotas' .16 Goals per Shot on Target ranked 208th in MLS last year, and his .07 goals per shot ranked him tied for 162nd. He was simply awful last year. It wasn't just that defenses were keying on him all year, it's that he couldn't capitalize when he needed to. The biggest reason was the play of newly acquired Darwin Quintero. Quintero ranked 2nd in MLS in assists, and his creative play in the midfield also placed him 1st in Progressive Passes (207), 2nd in Key Passes (64), and 3rd in Key Passes inside the 18 Yard Box (52). Quintero was the lone bright spot in the Dynamo attack, and he often carried the burden of creating every ounce of attack the Dynamo found.

The Dynamo had problems creating high efficiency chances. Of the chances they created, many where from long range and off target. The Dynamo averaged 18.7 meters per attempt (second highest in MLS). Their goals-expected goal ranked them only ahead of FC Cincinnati and New England. With Elis' departure, no goal scoring threat ever emerged to fill his shoes. Their wings were abysmal. And with no threat to stretch the field on the flanks, teams could simply pack it in and wait it out. Despite the number of chances created, and the quality passes made, goal scoring didn't follow suit. Couple that with the lack of quality defending, particularly in the midfield and you end up with a lead leading 9 draws. Houston could simply never pull away, and even leads late in games dwindled away as Quintero had few options to help hold possession.

The Dynamo equally had major problems in defense. They were second in all MLS in times dribbled past (270), and were last in Aerial Duels won (45.5%). They were near the bottom of the pack in Interceptions (125) and second to last in pressures in the middle-third, and their 8 goals given up directly off a defensive mistake was 4th most in the league. They also gave up almost double the number of goals on the counterattack to anyone else in the league.
It would be easy to place this on an aging mid-field and defense, if it wasn't for the fact that their best defender was well over 30. Maynor Figueroa (36) was by far their most effective all around defender. He led the team in Tackle%, Blocks, Interceptions, clearances, and dribblers tackled. While Aljaz Struna, Victor Cabrera, Adam Lunkvist, and Zerek Valentine all put in solid efforts, none where the type of difference makes that shut down opponents and win games. To summarize, while by all accounts and statistical data Houston was a middle of the road team, their finishing and lack of key defending led to a last place finish.

2021/2022 Position Outlook:

Goalkeeper:

Marko Marić, Kyle Morton, Michael Nelson

Marko Maric quietly had a very solid year. Rarely spectacular, sometimes out of position, but was more often than not in the right spot to make the play. While he led all MLS goalkeepers in shots saved last year, his save percentage was in the middle of the pack among regular goalkeepers. Maric is steady, but was often times left hung out to dry by a defense that pushed high late in search of goals. While not necessarily spectacular, he was a steady and constant force. If it wasn't for Maric, the Dynamo would have been in much worse positioning than they were. Take last year's October 14th matchup vs. Nashville for example. Hany Mukhtar completely roasted Struna for a chance dead in front of goal to put Nashville ahead 1-0. Maric wasn't in bad position, he was in a hopeless position. Any decent professional player is scoring there, and his defense had left him hanging completely out to dry. On goal #2, Abu Danladi got in behind Figueroa, who was lost as the forward went up and headed one in without any contention by the Dynamo defense what-so-ever. It wouldn't have mattered where Maric was on that play, Danladi was point blank in front of the goal unmarked. The third goal, a nice bender on a free kick by Mukhtar again. Maric misread it, and didn't even make an attempt. The first two goals were not his fault, and the third one was a goal he normally stops. This game could have been much worse than 3-1. Nashville routinely punched the ball downfield to wide open players, which Struna couldn't (and often didn't even make an attempt to) defend. While he didn't enough spectacular plays, he was often on an island vs a goal scorer. Sturna and Figueroa did him no favors in this game. Maric isn't a bad goalkeeper, but he's not going to consistently make great plays. He will have the 9 save game against FC Dallas, and also have the games where he lets one in he shouldn't have and Houston can't overcome it. He is a steady keeper who can start for a playoff caliber team, but is very reliant on his defense keeping the area in front of him clean.

Morton and Nelson are both projects. Neither have played a single MLS minute, and therefore make any projections difficult. Morton has a decent pedigree, and has worked his way up through the USL ranks. Having led the league with 14 clean sheets in 2019, he spent one year with St. Louis FC before signing with the Dynamo. Nelson was a first round pick in the 2018 MLS Super Draft. Nelson was a three time conference ward winner while at SMU, and poasted 4 clean sheets in 15 games at RGV in 2019. He's a long, rangy keeper with talent, but is a project at this point unless opportunity provides otherwise.

Central Defense:

Tim Parker, Alejandro Fuenmayor, Maynor Figueroa, Erik McCue, Ethan Bartlow

The addition of Tim Parker has honestly been severely undervalued coming into this season. Parker is a quality MLS defender, and an absolute upgrade over Aljaz Struna. Parker will help the Dynamo in one key area during the 2021 campaign, and that's winning Aerial Duels in the box. At 6'3", Parker has good size and leaping ability to defend balls lobbed in the box. Parker won 73% of his aerial duels last year, a number which no Dynamo defender can come close to. The Dynamo were the worst team in MLS (45.5%) in winning those duels, and a large part was because of their back line. Maynor Figueroa returns for another tour of duty holding down the back line. They 36 year old looks to be Parker's main tandem partner in Tab Ramos' 4 man back line. Maynor still has the athleticism and ability to compete day in day out in the MLS, but father time loses no battles and it will be seen how much he can hold up to the full rigor of an MLS Season. Alejandro Fuenmayor may still compete for a regular spot. Fuenmayor made 21 starts for the Dynamo in 2018, but has fallen out of favor with the additions of Struna and Figueroa. He's a sturdy defender, and still only 24 years old, with plenty of room to improve. Homegrown signing Erik McCue has never been able to break through at RGV, playing just 7 games (5 starts) over the last two season. With no real experience or ability to breakthrough the starting 11 at RGV, there is no reason to think he'll be a factor at BBVA next year. Bartlow has nice deep ball touch and can lead an attack from the back. The #6 pick in the MLS Superdraft may make a few appearances this season, the 2019 PAC-12 Defensive Player of the Year and former USMNT youth led a back line that allowed an NCAA 9th lowest 0.66 goals per game last year. Bartlow has the pedigree to be a good MLS player, but whether he can make the transition or not will be seen.

Full Backs:

Adam Lundkvist, Sam Junqua, Zarek Valentin, Jose Bizama

The Fullback pairing of Lundkvist and Valentin are a steady but undynamic presence in the backline for the Dynamo. Far from the weakest position on the roster, the duo give Tab Ramos an effective defensive pairing on the outside capable of shutting down opposing wings. While not the best going forward, the two can overlap and make runs down the sideline. Lundkvist's 71 crosses into the box where almost triple the next Dynamo player, and his passing ability allows Memo Rodriguez or Darwin Quintero to slot back inside. Lundkvist led the Dynamo in tackles and ranked second in interceptions. Zarek is a more traditional Right Back, and is a fairly accurate down field passer completing 69% of his passes of 30 yards or longer. Both Lundkvist and Valentin are good pieces, but need players to connect those passes to. Valentin was a much better fit when he could blast the ball deep to Alberth Elis and let him go get it. Junqua and Bizama will see action, but neither are effective enough going forward or in defense to overtake the incumbents. Junqua spent some time as a forward midfielder as well, but lacks the ball handling and touch to make any impact there.

Central Midfield:

Matias Vera, Darwin Ceren, Joe Corona, Darrick Jones, Boniek Garcia, Ian Hoffman, Juan Castilla

The most important, lifeline of both sides of the ball in Tab Ramos' system, is also the biggest enigma on the current roster. Matias Vera plays hard, and attacks the ball agressively. He's small, not particularly fast, and not a great defender. He is a very accurate passer and can start a break with his through balls. By far the most accurate passer on the Dynamo roster, his 91.6% passing percentage ranked 3rd in MLS, and it wasn't just from short dink and dunkers. His 86.9% passing rate on passes 30 yards or longer ranked 6th in the league. He is a high energy player and a high efficiency passer. The question isn't whether he's a good player, but.....can you win with him? Like most of the Dynamo roster, he is very dependent on whom you pair him with in the midfield. Vera led the team in times dribbled past (37,7th most in the league) and is among the lower echelon in the league in aerial duels won (45%). He needs a partner to pick up his weaknesses. Darwin Ceren is not that player. Ceren is a nice player, a very well respected part of the team, and a leader. He's just not particularly good at anything. Don't get me wrong, he's not a bad player so to speak, but he just doesn't excel at anything. He's a mediocre passer (83%), was second on the team in times dribbled past (29), and his 31.3 pressure success rate ranked 89th in the league. Vera and Ceren need a compliment, and unfortunately they don't compliment each other well. Ceren is actually worse at winning balls in the air than Vera, and while he's a good long ball player as well and helps clean up loose balls in the midfield, the pairing just doesn't work with the way the team is currently constructed. They don't have the scoring punch to make up for the lack of defending, and they don't have players dynamic enough to do anything with the balls they play through. Joe Corona could be an answer, the former LA Galaxy regular made 26 starts in 2019, and 38 over the last two years. He rates slightly better defensively than Ceren, and is a solid passer. Derrick Jones is an intriguing player. 6'2" and rangy, he made 9 starts and 18 appearances for SC Nashville last year. He has shown the ability to win balls against opponents and defend balls in the air. At the age of 24 when the season starts, he could develop into the player the Dynamo need to fit alongside Vera. Boniek Garcia will bring experience and energy off the bench. Garcia is a solid player with plenty left in the tank to fill that role. Ian Hoffman is a young (19 at the time of this writing) prospect who has progressed nicely since his days on Karlsruhe's youth teams.

Outside/Attacking Midfield:

Nico Lemoine, Memo Rodriguez, Marcelo Palomino, Daniel Rios, Darwin Quintero, Fafa Picault, Mateo Bajamich

The biggest problem with the Dynamo's forward midfielders is that Tab Ramos needs them to be spectacular every single minute of every single game. Most particularly Darwin Quintero. If El Cientifico del Gol isn't creating it, it isn't getting created. Quintero had the difficult task of being the only person on the pitch with any ability to create goal scoring chances for himself or his teammates, especially after the departure of Elis. While he did a superb job of slotting in behind Mauro Manotas, teams could simply key on his every move. Second in the league in assists (7) and first on the team in goals (7), Quintero carried the workload admirably. But he was John Stockton with no Karl Malone. With Manotas now gone, who will he have to create for? Memo Rodriguez has come along into a solid player, and while he's a nice piece, he's not what the Dynamo need. He's not a talented passer, or a gifted goal scorer, but he is a solid MLS caliber player. If he continues to progress, he could help shoulder some of the load. Fafa Picault could help. The former Philadelphia Union and FC Dallas player scored 10 goals for the Union as recently as 2018. He's been a solid MLS player for since coming over from the Bundesliga (FC St. Pauli) in 2017 and has something which the Dynamo attack desperately needs: speed. Nico Lemoine, Mateo Bajamich and Marcelo Palomino are all prospects trying to find their way into playing time, but as of now, one will have to find his way onto the pitch. Palomino is a former Dynamo Academy prospect, and could eventually take over for Quintero as a creative force. Bajamich (21) is an intriguing right wing prospect that comes from Argentina with upside, after he played 21 games for Instituto AC Córdoba in the Argentinian top flight in 2019/20, posting 9 goals and 1 assist.

Forwards:

Maximiliano Urruti, Christian Ramirez, Tyler Pasher

Journeymen. Average. Place Holders. Unspectacular. These are the descriptions that fit the current goal scoring options for the Houston Dynamo. These aren't forwards that strike fear in anyone's heart, and they aren't the type of forwards that will propel the Houston Dynamo from the bottom of the table. Christian Ramirez is a contributor, and Maximiliano is capable of double digit goals, but neither are capable of getting the Dynamo where they want. Tyler Pasher is a USL journeyman with 45 minutes of MLS experience. In MLS, goal scorers win, and the Dynamo simply don't have one. Unless one of them has a breakout season, the Dynamo will spend this season just as frustrated as last. While it's nearly impossible to be worse than what was seen from the Dynamo strikers last year, this position is full of low ceiling talent talent that most likely will not make an impact on the final results.

Synopsis:

While judgement will be held on whether the roster is good enough to compete as a middle of the road playoff qualifier or not, this team still desperately needs a finisher. Whether that is found from within, or if there's still another move to be made, without a reliable finisher around the goal this team is going nowhere. There is still a severe lack of outside playmaking, even with the presence of Memo Rodriguez. The most consistent passer from outside the box is Adam Lundkvist, and whether or not there is anyone who can connect on the end of those crosses it yet to be seen. Without an outside threat, it leaves Houston with only really being able to build up the middle or through the counter. To make the jump to a playoff contending team, Houston needs playmakers. I don't see Fafa Picault or Maximiliano Urruti as the kind of upgrades catapulting this team into a contender, and striker has now been severely downgraded from a year ago. While Manotas was almost non-existent last year, his ability far outshines anything they have this year in tow. Tim Parker, while a really nice addition, isn't enough to change this club's standing.

Prediction:

I see this team as a slightly better version of last year's team, placing no higher than 10th in the Western Conference. The Dynamo fans will spend another year without playoff soccer, another year calling from Brener and De La Hoya to sell the team, and another year yearning for more. While upgrades were made with Parker and Picault, no goal scoring threat was acquired and the midfield will probably be the same. The Dynamo front office are asking Tab Ramos for miracles, and one would certainly hope that they have patience as he develops and retools this roster. While Urruti should be able to provide an upgrade over the production of Manotas last year, he's not enough to propel the Dynamo in any kind of direction. Whether the combination of parts fit will be seen in final results.