Dear Pat Onstad: Please bring us the change we deserve.

 *To start, I'd like to say thank you to Tab Ramos.  I think (regardless of how you feel about him as a coach) we can all agree that he was a stand-up guy, and was in an impossible situation.  While you and I might not agree with all he did tactically, I think we can agree that he was trying to create a culture here, he was trying to lay foundations for things (like the academy). I hope he can find a better situation for himself.  Best of Luck. “I know he cares about his team a lot,” Onstad said. “He’s also a guy that is an insane worker so he puts in a lot of hours. Everything he’s done, he’s done for the team and tried to make this a better team." 

On another note, I've been writing this off and on since the season ended.  Every time I get started something new happens, and also nothing new happens.  Plus it's basketball season and I have a lot less free time on my hands these days. Anyway, on to today's post.*

On August 30th, 2021 new owner Ted Segal made the decision to move his new shiny toy on a new path with the firing of long-time GM Matt Jordan.  On November 1st, 2021, Pat Onstad was named the new Houston GM.  The message boards and Twitterverse since then have been been a mixed bag of hope, excitement, skepticism, and vitriol.  Both Segal and Onstad have brought a ton of excitement, hopefulness, and interest in the club, but the one thing we were all hoping they'd bring has been lacking: change.  Let's go back and look at the timeline on Pat, what was said, what's been done, and where we are currently at.

What Segal said:

“I don’t want to give away all of the elements of our search,” Segal said. “What I will say is that we certainly will be looking at candidates with MLS experience. MLS experience, given the unique rules of MLS and the unique style of play, certainly is an important thing and a factor we’re going to consider.” 

Segal seemed open to changing the front office structure of the club, stating: “It (creating both a GM and a Technical Director role) is certainly going to be a consideration. We’re making our evaluations right now. We’re in the early days of our search. We’re going to see what kind of candidates we’re able to field, and who expresses interest to be here. I do think it’s an appealing location and an appealing opportunity, both with respect to the quality city and the successful history of Houston. And hopefully some folks who are encouraged by new ownership.” 

I highlighted the second phrase because I think it was part of why Pat got the job.  Pat definitely wanted it, past players and even Glenn Davis seemed to be in favor of Pat, and even the fan base jumped on board.   Pat seemed to be a perfect fit: a Dynamo legend who won plenty of hardware on the pitch, had success as both an assistant coach, and helped oversee a quick turnaround and transition as the Technical Director of the Columbus Crew.  

What does Segal want his club to be?

While Segal has never come out and said it, he's come out and said it.

• "I'm not going to get into the specifics of our partnership agreement. What I will say is I'm the ultimate deciding authority and I will further add, the league wants to have one deciding authority and so you're talking to him." (The Striker)
• "The picture in my mind was 22,000 seats filled with screaming fans, cheering on champions for both the Dynamo and the Dash, so that's what I picture and that's what I hope can happen for us and in the relatively near future." (The Striker)
• "I think you can take pieces or best practices from from a variety of clubs across the league. I think the community enthusiasm in a place like Atlanta, when they can sell out a building as large as it is in a relatively new soccer city, is very impressive. I think if you read across the league, I think there's a lot of praise for the player development that's occurred in Philadelphia. I think if you look towards Portland, you have community events rallied both for the Timbers and the Thorns – which is great for somebody in my position who's now the new owner of the Dynamo and the Dash. You look at what Sporting KC has done in their evolution over time, both in terms of creating that fan enthusiasm, creating winning sides and how they develop players. So there's a lot of examples across the league and best practices where you can take pieces from from all those and hopefully synthesize into what we're trying to achieve." (The Striker)
• “In addition (to shaving a proven track record and knowing MLS), success is a proven track record of developing the youth system, both from a perspective of channeling those players into the first team and potentially cultivating players that can perform for you or that you can sell on as well. So those are a few metrics." (MLS.com)
• "Of course, we need people who have a deep-rooted passion for the game," Segal commented on future hires. "What I will say is it would be very nice to add additional Houstonians to our organization and in particular, what I'd like to highlight, and you, Glenn, as somebody who has been involved with the sport in this city since 1984, I'd like to welcome back a lot more of our players from the glory days." (MLS.com)
• "I think, again, if we go back to your prior question, if we develop the right talent and we succeed on the field, we're going to have full stands and a talent development sporting element of our club that is the envy of the league." (The Striker).
• “What we have in the Dynamo is a sleeping giant,” Segal said. “A club that has experienced success in the past. And with the adequate resources, which is what I’m here to do … we can reawaken that sleeping giant.” (The Houston Chronicle)

First and foremost, Segal says he wants to win.  Segal has talked all about fan involvement, developing youth, and increasing spending.  In almost every interview he's talked about how success on the pitch will lead to 22,000 screaming fans inside PNC (still seems weird).  He wants the club to be full of past greats, connecting us to our glory days. He wants us to have a passionate fanbase and community connection to Atlanta and Portland, and develop players and win like Sportin K.C.  All of those things sound amazing on paper, but to awaken this Sleeping Giant, and overcome a cynical fanbase, is a lot more work than I think anyone is willing to admit.  

The process:

On Friday, October 22nd, MLS.com reported that the front runners for the vacant Dynamo GM job were Dennis te Kloese and Pat Onstad.  This was a choice between polar opposites, with the high spending LAG vs. the win on a budget style of the Columbus Crew.  The signing of te Kloese would have most likely come with a total frameshift in the way business was done at 1001 Avenida de las Americas.  Onstad seemed a better fit for what this club had been about, but with new ownership and the promise of new investment, te Kloese seemed interesting.  

"As we went through the search process, Pat clearly showed himself to be the best person for the job based on his experience in a number of leadership roles, his track record of success at every stop and his understanding of our league, our club and our community,” Dynamo majority owner Ted Segal said in a statement. “His preparation and attention to detail during the interview process illustrated the qualities that I believe will make him successful as our general manager. I look forward to working with him to build the Dynamo into championship contenders once again.”

“To a person, Pat was recognized for the quality of his temperament and judgment and his readiness to take on this role. Pat knows what it takes to build a winning culture in Houston and he has the character to execute that objective." Through this, I wanted to see what the thinking was.  Segal is in a very difficult position for many reasons.  (1) There are not enough people in a Metroplex of almost 7,000,000 people that care about his team.  (2) There are too many of those that do care that have turned on his club. (3) The ones left desperately want change.  Segal isn't just trying to draw the casual fan, he needs to build a fanbase.  He's trying to revive a once-great team and build a passionate fan base from the dying embers of the small fire that once burned here.  Don't get me wrong, I think Onstad was a smart choice, and the right one to connect with this fanbase.  "I am honored and humbled to have the opportunity to lead the Dynamo as general manager,” Onstad said. “My family and I loved our time in Houston when I played for the club, and it has been a goal of mine since I retired to return one day and help this club compete for championships again. I’m looking forward to the challenge and I can’t wait to get to work.”  Onstad seems like the perfect fit from a "wanting to be here" standpoint, and from what everything Segal has said the ideology is shared between owner and GM.  

While I've always stated that I want a Seattle type of organization and not a flash in the pan, te Kloese would have signaled to me a seriousness about completely changing the way the Dynamo are run.  The Galaxy have routinely spent more on one guy than we have ever spent in a transfer window, and usually have one guy in squad that earns more than our entire roster.  Onstad's not foreign to being in the upper echelon of MLS spending himself, with Sporting having the 8th highest payroll in MLS last year.  Both have benefitted from having a high-quality striker in tow.  te Kloese benefitted from having arguably the greatest Striker in the history of MLS in Zlatan, then going out and finally bringing Chichirito into MLS.  While Gyasi Zardes is nowhere near that level, he's been a high-impact goal-scorer for one of the best teams in the league.  Onstad shrewdly put players around him, with the trade for Darlington Nagbe and the signing of Lucas Zelarayán for $8 million off the heals of the Zac Steffan transfer to Manchester City.  Pat then went out and got his Goal Keeper (Elroy Room) on a Free Transfer from PSV Eindhoven.  

Onstad should be able to connect with this situation in more ways than simply "he played here." Some of the struggles in Houston are the same that he faced in Columbus: (1)A small and dwindling fanbase. (2) Limited transfer budget. (3) A somewhat unproductive academy (4) A transition in ownership.  Onstad is equipped to deal with what this city and this league bring at him.  The concern, however, is that Onstad is being asked to do exactly what Matt Jordan did but be better at it.

The Head Coaching Search:

Glenn Davis first said it right after Tab Ramos and the Houston Dynamo parted ways: "The new head coach will come with a huge question mark......" and he was spot on. Bob Bradley, or anyone like him, was never coming here.  Not only do those guys probably not want to come here for a multitude of reasons, but it's also not what the Dynamo are looking for.  The list of candidates was notably underwhelming to say the list.  Not to say anything else about the other guys that were mentioned, but most of the potential candidates' lists were pretty much on par with the way we've done business here for the last decade.  When Jessie Marsch was let go, I thought we should go do whatever it takes to get him here, but it doesn't take long to realize that this team isn't interested in anyone on that level. 

Onstad has repeatedly stated that he wants a "collaborator".  What does this mean?  He wants someone to work with him.  "It's certainly difficult for us to have someone come in and say 'hey, I have nine staff members that need to come...'. That's certainly not the club that I want to lead. The club I want to lead is you still have people that work for the club." (Soccer Matters with Glenn Davis). "......those are the guys (Paul Rogers, Paul Caffrey, etc) that put the club first and foremost, and those are the guys that you need working for the club."  He stated (and I'm paraphrasing here) that he doesn't want the team to be sectional, that he doesn't want to be a guy that just gets players, and the coaches just coach.  He wants to rely on the coach's expertise and input but also wants a coach that relies on his.  He wants coaches and technical staff that are just as involved in recruiting players they want as he is.  "I'd like to say now I've been in this league since 2003, I have a pretty good idea what works in this league. So I also think my expertise to be isolated would be a waste...."  He's not looking for Bruce Arena or a Gregg Berhalter situation where they are both coach and sporting director/GM. Pat has his ideas on how to build this team, what he wants his team to look like, and what he wants his coach to be. That's a good thing because no high-level coach will ever come here if he can't pick his own assistants.

Pat Onstad wants a team that is "proactive": "I know there are obviously things that you have to take into account when you play in a climate like this," added Onstad. "It’s hard to demand 90 minutes of full pressing soccer from your whole group. At the end of the day, I think you need to be proactive in the way you play the game. You can look around the world now at the teams that are really successful – the Bayern Munich's, the Liverpool's, whatnot. I think they are proactive teams, they get in the other team's face and make it uncomfortable for them to play, but at the same token when they get an opportunity they can control the tempo of the game and score with great goal-scoring opportunities."  When you're talking about Bayern Munich or Liverpool, you are talking about some of the greatest players in the world.  Style of play?  Press high and aggressive, take the ball away, control the ball and get good shot opportunities.  

Only 38 years of age, Paulo Nagumura has the resume that fits what Segal and Ostad have described: a guy who has had success in MLS at multiple levels, a guy who's had success at developing youth, and a guy that comes from one of the model franchises that Segal has discussed.  Sporting plays a style that fits the description Onstad laid out, and in his brief time as Sporting KC II's coach he had a hand in moving 15 homegrown players on to the next level.  Guys like Gianluca Busio, Jaylin Lindsey, Cameron Duke, and Daniel Salloi all came through while he was in charge.  I see some out there being critical of the hire based on record, to which I'll let Glenn Davis reply: "Now I see a lot of people out there pointing to his record of 31-60-25......Uhm......when you're a developmental team for a pro-club and a reserve team, I think it's more important how many players are being helped through the process to the first team."  Some teams want their MLS Next teams to win, some just want to get guys experience and move them on.  If you're a good developmental coach, you'll lose your best players every year.  Sporting K.C. has been one of the best at producing Home Grown talent over the last 10 years, and hopefully Nagumura can bring some of that with him.  

There is a chance that this ends up being the perfect melding of like-mindedness that finally turns the Houston Dynamo into a first-class organization. Even if this is the case, it will most likely be years before we see it.  If Nagumura isn't completely overwhelmed and tactically deficient, we could start to see results next year.  As it currently stands, however, even if Nagumura is a tactical genius 2022 will be very difficult to watch.

The Roster:  

When this list first came out on Twitter in November, it actually gave me hope.  This team is in desperate need of a roster overhaul.  Not really in terms of "just burn it down and get rid of everyone", but in terms of usable and functional parts.   I was surprised to see Zarek on this list after the year he had, and knew a couple of others would return due to contract situations, but I thought this would be a good foundation to lay with enough of a blank slate to really start to build something here.  What transpired since then was the bringing back of 24 players from last year's squad, with an upgrade at GK in the form of Steve Clark and a curious trade for a CB in Daniel Steres.  

Some of the trimmings were absolutely necessary.  I love Boniek Garcia, but he's 35 years old.  There is no reason on a team that is trying to build that you keep a 35 year old CDM/CM/CB/ whatever else you decide to play him at.  I love Maynor, but he's 38.  They shouldn't have been here last year, it was a good decision to move on. Maxi Urruti had a hot 7 game stretch but was worse than bad for much of the season because he dropped soo deep in defense he was never in scoring position.  Then when he was in scoring position, he couldn't finish.  Onstad made a terrific move, getting $100k from Inter Miami for Ariel Lassiter.  Lassiter showed very few flashes that he could actually play at this level and spent most of his time on the field not producing anything.  There were quite a few more I would have liked to see made.  With European transfer windows opening yesterday (Jan. 1st) we only have 4 spots to play with at the moment.  Even with one need already addressed (GK), there are still many holes left open.  

The Attack

The only striker on the team is Corey Baird.  Darwin Quintero was brought back, but presumably on a greatly reduced salary and (according to Glenn Davis and others, but he's still listed on MLS.com as a DP) with a greatly reduced role. These are both things that I agree with.  At 35 years old, Quintero still has enough left in the tank to spot start or come in off the bench late in games to give us a spark.  This leaves two huge questions: (1) Will he do it, or will we see the Quintero we saw off the bench for the first 1/3rd of the season? (2) WHO IS GOING TO START?  Baird has never been a legitimate goal scorer in this league and has actually seen his role, playing time, and production all take a hit.  You could make a really strong case that he's actually getting worse each and every year that he's played in this league.  He is highlighted by 8 goals and 5 assists that he had as a rookie playing for RSL, and he's never been close to being to able to attain that level of extremely mediocre production over the last three years.  Last year he managed 3 goals and 2 assists in over 1,000 minutes played.  He makes almost $400,00 in salary +incentives.  The return of Pasher and Picault is fine.  The two played fairly well together in the beginning parts of the season, but who's going to play in between them?  I like Griffen Dorsey.  He plays hard and is a nice piece to have on any team, and he's fairly cheap.  But the Dynamo could use another winger to push this group and desperately need both a #10 and a #9.  

The Midfield

The midfield was the second biggest problem on the team last year behind the striker. Unable to hold possession, unable to break lines, unable to produce goals, gave the ball back to the other team in horrible positions regularly, and was inconsistent (to put it nicely) in defense. Memo Rodriguez, Joe Corona, Derrick Jones, and Darwin Ceren, are all coming back. I can understand if you want to bring back Memo OR Derrick Jones, but not both.  I don't understand why Ceren or Corona are coming back at all.  Both are older (30,31), both are highly unproductive, neither really seem to do anything to help any team they've ever been on win games (and yes, I'm aware of Corona's 1,000 minutes he played for 1st place Tijuana).   Neither can really break lines with the pass or the dribble, and both are below average defensively.  Vera is a very solid, scrappy, and efficient player, but he's not a dynamic one.  He needs a stud next to him.  None of these guys are it.  Nico Lemoine got his contract picked back up, and as he is on roughly $70,000 a year, and qualifies for the U-23 Roster, is not a bad option for that role.  I could foresee Mateo Bajamich, Ian Hoffman, Daniel Rios, and Juan Castilla filling out that roster as well, and while I've read the MLS Next roster rules, I don't really know how the roster would work for guys that possibly bounce between Dynamo and Dynamo II.  I like all of these more if they don't count toward the 30 man limit.

The Defense

I have no problems with bringing back Lundqvist, Hadebe, and Parker.  I don't even mind bringing Zarek back as a spot starter/sub/locker room guy.  The guys on the team seem to love him.  Literally every interview I hear they all list him as one of their favorite guys.  He's too slow to play 2,000 minutes on a team that has serious aspirations, but on a team that's rebuilding and trying to sneak into the playoffs he can definitely play a role.  Not a full-time starter role, but a role.  With Fuenmayor and Figeroa both departing (and their combined $350,000 in salary), the team needed to add something.  I'm still curious about Ethan Bartlow.  He's very slight for an MLS level CB (I was really surprised at by his size at the "Meet the Player" night), and I wonder if he can hold up at that position against MLS level strikers and forwards. I think the move for Steres is intriguing.  The 31 year old has seen his playing time slashed over the last three years, from 2,600 minutes in 2019 to 1,100 minutes last year.  He should give us depth and flexibility if we go three at the back, and while he was a need there are much more pressing needs in front of this team.  The team still needs to add depth at RB, because currently Zarek is the only one we have.  Junqua still has a lot of room to grow, and the job should be Lundqvists without question.

Goal Keeper.

Without any question, Steve Clark is a nice addition.  Although he's aging, he's coming off one of his best seasons and is without question an upgrade over anyone on the roster from last year.  While I though Maric was an improving player, and there were things that I liked from Michael Nelson, both are not on this level.  Clark outpaced them in Save% by a long shot, and stopped more crosses (301) in his 2,096 minutes than all Dynamo keepers managed to stop in 3,060 (291).  He's better on goal kicks, he has a higher passing percentage, and literally beats both Maric and Nelson in every statistical category.  All of them.  This is a nice add, and something that should excite a fanbase.  The only reason why this wouldn't be a tremendous move is if we fail to add people in front of him.  For this move to work, we need to add a quality striker.

Closing thoughts:

Not that I'm arrogant enough to think that Ted Segal, Pat Onstad, or Glenn Davis read my blog, but just in case you are I have a message for you:

The fans that once cheered Pat on from the stands at Robertson Stadium, and that "wall of orange" that Onstad lovingly recalled during his initial press conference is a group that is on life support.  Burned by the previous regime, soured by years of hearing words that never came to fruition.  The #ForeverOrange crew is highly skeptical of everything you are saying because they've heard it all before.  Mr. Onstad, Matt Jordan also said he wanted a team that was full of energy and played an aggressive style.  He (and partially because of no support from previous ownership) constructively made this roster worse every single year.  Ted, you are saying all the right things.  So did Tab Ramos.  Even the most optimistic and starry-eyed fans like myself currently share a common bond with that group: we don't care about your words.  We need actions.  Currently, it seems like the Modus Operandi is to try to do the exact same thing the previous regime did but to actually be good at it.   About the only thing that was different to date this offseason is that instead of dropping 10 guys that couldn't play and no one wanted, we brought them back for next year.  While I understand that there are soo many holes to plug in this damn that you don't have enough plugs, you have to start building and you have to do it soon.  Last year we went into the season with two DP positions unfilled.  We are currently going into this season without a striker, and (depending on which website we read) without at least one DP spot filled.  You parted ways with Tab Ramos (something that many were calling for), then hired a guy with the same resume.  Right now, we see you as no different than the previous regime, only you're taking longer to come to the same conclusion.

This offseason isn't going to awaken a Sleeping Giant, and with the way you are approaching business that Giant is beginning to decompose.  Without a drastic change to the way this team has approached the last decade of MLS campaigns, the Giant is a dream that's quickly fading away.  You won't awaken any giants, but hopefully you can build a palace.....brick by brick.

Thanks again for reading,

Remember to #HoldItDown and stay #ForeverOrange

Brian