Houston Dynamo Season Preview: 2022-2023

Major League Soccer Season Preview (2021/2022) – Houston Dynamo

Basics: 

Full Name: Houston Dynamo F.C.
Nicknames: Orange Crush, El Naranja (The Orange)
Founded: December 15, 2005
Majority Owner: Ted Segal
General Manager: Pat Onstad
Stadium – P.N.C. Stadium

Year Built: 2012

Capacity: 22,039

Attendance: 207.732 (12,220 per match; 18th in MLS) 

Trophies: MLS Cup - 2006,2007 MLS Cup (Runners Up) - 2011, 2012; U.S. Open Cup - 2018, North American Super-Liga (Runners Up) - 2008

Kits: 

Coach: Paulo Nagamura

MLS Position: 13th in Western Conference (25th Overall)

U.S. Open Cup Result: Cancelled

Playoff Result: Did not qualify.

CONCACAF Champions League Result: Did not qualify.

Additions: Steve Clark, Sebastián Ferreira, Zeca, Brooklyn Raines, Thor Úlfarsson, Daniel Steres, Arturo Ordóñez, Paulo Lima
Losses: Jose Bizama, Kyle Morton, Joe Corona, Ariel Lassiter, Maxi Urruti, Marko Maric, Alejandro Fuenmayor, Erik McCue, Boniek Garcia, Mateo Bajamich, Maynor Figueroa,

2020/2021 Overview: 

In a season that started off with some promise, then quickly went in the tank, there was little to cheer for.  Starting off the season going 3-2-2 with wins over San Jose (2-1, Week 1), Sporting K.C. (1-0, Week 5), and Vancouver (2-1, Week 7), things turned disastrous fairly quickly for Tab Ramos and the entire organization.  Going winless from May 29th - Sept. 3rd (0-8-8), the team dropped from 4th to last and ended the season with 4 straight losses.  While the results on the field left the dwindling fanbase with little to be excited about, major shakeups have brought hope that changes are about to take place.  Ted Segal bought a majority ownership stake of the Dynamo and Dash for $400 million, Matt Jordan was fired and replaced by Pat Onstad, and Tab Ramos' contract was not renewed. 
  

This Winter was a season of major changes:

One of the things that should perk all of our ears up is how the Dynamo made some major structural changes organizationally this winter.  Not only did we change out the GM, but the dividing up of duties with the hiring of a Technical Director, and hiring the Dash their own club President will help lessen the load of GM Pat Onstad.  The most exciting change to me, however, is the formation of the MLS Next-Pro unit, fully staffed, and on-site.  Having your 2nd team line up in the same building, on the same training fields, every single day as your 1st team should solve most of the developmental issues we've seen here over the last decade.  Hopefully, this fully functional and clear pathway from Academy to 1st team should interest more Houston area prospects into joining the Dynamo, and hopefully, we don't lose the Christian Cappis' of the world to F.C. Frisco and Europe in the future.  Another encouraging development this summer is the success of Alberth Elis in France's League 1.  Seeing a player who came here as a 20-year-old, was sold on, and is now succeeding in one of Europe's bigger leagues should be welcoming to young players wanting to come here and develop.  Finding a way to add young players with a high ceiling to some real DP-level talent and a couple of key veterans is one way to begin to turn this roster and this organization around.

2021/2022 Position Outlook:

Goalkeeper:

Steve Clark, Michael Nelson

In one of his first moves as GM, Pat Onstad went out and got himself a keeper.  Last years' combo of Maric (22 starts), Michael Nelson (11 starts), and Nelson (1 start) ranked in the bottom third in the league in Save % (67.3%, 8th worst in MLS), Goals Against (54, tied for 5th worst in MLS), and didn't save a Penalty Kick against the entire year (0-4).  Clark is an experienced vet who is (at least on paper) an obvious upgrade over last year's crew.  Clark's 78% save percentage was good for second in the league despite seeing 110 Shots on Target against in 24 games.  Clark ranked 10th in MLS in number of saves, despite only starting 24 games.   Clark is a winner (36 wins over the last three years), has been part of playoff teams in every MLS season except 1 (2017 D.C. United) and has been a playoff goalkeeper every year as a starter.  While Houston doesn't have the quality of defenders in the back 6 that Portland does, Clark is a quality addition and a step in the right direction towards getting the Dynamo back in playoff contention.

Central Defense:

Tim Parker, Teenage Hadebe, Daniel Steres, Ethan Bartlow, Derrick Jones, Sam Junqua

While the additions of Teenage Hadebe and Tim Paker built a solid backline, the proof didn't show up in results.  Houston's 54 goals against (51 conceded, 3 own goals) was tied for 5th worst in the league. While we did see an uptick in Goals against from 2020 (1.79-1.59) and Shot Creating Actions Against/90 (23.09 - 20.59).  The arrival of Hadebe in June didn't make much of an impact in terms of wins/losses, but all you have to do is watch the guy play.  He's a top-level MLS defender with range and deep ball passing ability.  He goes after the ball with tenacity and  His 4.3 Clearances/90 and his 1.8 interceptions/90 led the team.  Parker wore the captain's armband for much of the year and helped settle a tumultuous backline from the year before.  Both Parker (75.9%) and Hadebe (70.6%) won over 70% of their aerial duels. Bigger expectations are placed on these two, and although they started off great (3 clean sheets in their first 3 games together) and improved XGa (1.68-1.18 through October 20th), the expectation was that these two would help carry the Dynamo into one of the best defenses in the league.  While stopping the ball from going in the net is the responsibility of more than two people, these two have to be better.  I find it interesting that Hadebe gets a lot of blame, and there are people out there saying he's not very good, but Parker gets (for the most part) a pass.  Just compare the two's productivity/90 minutes.  It heavily favors Hadebe in virtually every category.

The two need to stay healthy because behind them there are extremely limited options.  Daniel Steres is a declining MLS player, who has shown little in the offseason to give confidence he could improve the squad, Sam Junqua made strides towards being a solid MLS level player last year, but still makes bad reads on balls and reacts late to runs at times.  Junqua actually led the team in taking on opposing attackers (60% in tackles vs. Dribblers) and his 43 blocks were 2nd on the team, but he also got lost off the ball at times and it led to goals.  Bartlow, last year's 1st round pick in the MLS Super Draft comes with some pedigree of success, and Jones has the size and range to be a quality defender, but neither has played a single MLS minute at the position.  

Full Backs:

Adam Lundkvist, Sam Junqua, Zarek Valentin, Griffen Dorsey, Zeca

Adam Lundkvist is a solid player.  He defends well, has a high work rate, is good with the ball at his feet, and is the team's best crosser from outside the box.  To date, the team is still searching for the compliment on the other side of the field.  We all know Valentin's limitations and that a new RB is needed.  Dorsey has been the answer for most of the pre-season, and you have seen both Austin F.C. and Dallas go directly after him.  Newly acquired José Carlos Cracco Neto (Zeca) will take over one of these spots, the only thing left to figure out is which one. The 5'7" right-footer has played both sides at all stops during his career, including Santos in the Brazillian Serie-A.  At 27 years old and a veteran of both the Brazillian league and national team play, he brings along with him over 10,000 minutes played at high levels of competition.  

Junqua made strides defensively last year and is a solid player going forward, but he lacks the ability to execute in the final third and makes horrendous mistakes off the ball at times, leading to goals.  He has seen almost no time in the pre-season, and I imagine with the arrival of Zeca he and Zarek will be odd-men looking out.  Many are waiting impatiently to see what Zeca brings to the table for the Dynamo. If he can get the ball forward and connect to the players up top, make plays into the box, and defend, we have a piece to add to this group.  If he turns out to be Bizama, who never really fit and never really got a chance, then we are back to square 1 and this is Griffen Dorsey's job to lose.  This group needs to take it to the next level for this team to have any chance of making a jump, both defensively and in the attack.  

Central Midfield: 

Matias Vera, Darwin Ceren, Darrick Jones, Ian Hoffman, Juan Castilla, Coco Carrasquilla, Memo Rodriguez, Marcelo Palomino, Daniel Rios, Darwin Quintero,

The most important part of this team, and the one paid the least attention to in the offseason, the Dynamo will go as far as this group can carry them.  Currently, its a group that doesn't really fit together, doesn't fit any particular style of play and was the downfall (for the most part) of last season.  The problem with this group, as a group, is that they don't do anything particularly well.  They don't protect the backline very well, they don't move the ball downfield very well, they don't break lines with passes very well, they aren't very creative, and they don't play the possession game very well.  Their one-touch passing is sub-par, and their first touch is poor.  Looking at them individually there are guys that can be solid pieces, but together they just don't work.  Mattias Vera is a solid 6, he plays hard,  chases down balls, and is an extremely accurate passer.  Partnered with the right guy in a double pivot formation, he'd be a solid piece.  In a single pivot formation, Vera lacks the range and size to protect the backline.   

This group has a knack for giving the ball away in terrible positions, leading to quick counter-attacking chances by the other team.  As a group, they aren't the fleetest of foot and will lose footraces to most MLS attackers.  The biggest overhaul going forward needs to be in the midfield.  Memo Rodriguez was highly disappointing last year.  After starting for much of the first half of the season, he did little to show he could be a productive everyday midfielder at the MLS level.  While I still believe that Memo can be an important guy on the team, he's not THE guy on the team.  Tab hedged his bets on this belief, and it really came back to bite him.  Coco Carrasquilla shows some flashes but lacks consistency on both sides of the ball.  Too much of the attack has been placed at Darwin Quintero creating for everyone, and the aging #10 wasn't up to the task for much of the year last year.  Darwin was sometimes spectacular for the last 10 games of the season, but for much of the year couldn't find teammates in space or find the back of the net.  For a team that desperately needed goals, he couldn't find them often enough.  

Look for the younger contingent (Castilla, Rios, Hoffman) to spend some time developing with Dynamo II.  I believe we may see some Palomino in the lineup this year.  Palomino had a solid first year as a pro with Charlotte in the USL last year, posting 6 goals and 1 assist in 2,100 minutes played.  He probably needs another full year at that level to truly develop into a productive attacking midfielder, but may get his chance to develop with the first team this year.

Forwards: 

Sebastian Ferreira, Thor Úlfarsson, Fafa Picault, Tyler Pasher, Corey Baird, Griffen Dorsey

Last year before the year even started I asked where the goals would come from.  The Dynamo had their worst goal output in the Franchise's history and were last in MLS with 36 goals scored.  In answer, the front office stepped up and landed the largest transfer in Dynamo history with Sebastian Ferreira, then drafted one of the most productive goal-scorers in the NCAA in Thor Úlfarsson.  Fafa Picault showed he could still be a productive everyday winger last year, with his 11 goals and 4 assists.  Tyler Pasher jumped off to a fabulous start, before losing almost a month playing for the Canadian National Team and injuries cost him more of the season upon return.  Pasher was never the same after his hot start to the first 10 games of the season.  Corey Baird was landed for a large sum of TAM and GAM before also being lost for the end of the season, without scoring a single goal or producing a single assist.  Baird has seen the lion's share of time at RW in the preseason and notched his first goal of the year with a header vs. FC Dallas in the final preseason matchup. Baird is a high-energy player who makes good runs but has shown a declining ability to put the ball in the net over the last few years.  

Sebas can do one thing we sorely lacked last year: finish.  He finds good space in front of the net and can put the ball past the keeper in a variety of ways.  He's shown scoring ability in Liga Mx, and in Paraguay's Primera Division, and should be a major upgrade over Maxi Urruti from a year ago.  My biggest question: Who gives Sebas the service he needs?   Between Fafa and Baird, the ability to stretch the defense and open wholes for Sebas and Quintero should be there.  But can they get him the ball with precision and timing so he can finish off chances?  Of the wing players, I think Tyler Pasher has the best ability to play with Sebas, but he's been mostly off the bench this preseason. 

Head Coach:

Paulo was hired to do two things: (1) Help the Dynamo install a developmental system and mindset at PNC (2) Install a "proactive" approach to play. Pat, Paulo, and Ascher have all referenced this style of approach in press conferences. What does this mean? Attack when the opportunity presents itself, possess when the opportunity exists, and counter when you can.  My question about the hiring is this:  How patient is this fanbase, and (more importantly) the new owner and GM going to be?  We have a young, inexperienced coach and a collection of players who are mismatched to the style we want.  I'm intrigued to see how the team responds to him and to see exactly how he's going to put this collection of players together.  In the preseason, he seems fixed on a 4-3-3 formation, but we've seen multiple variations of it.  Against Austin and Dallas, it was more of a deep-lying 4-3-3 with two of the three midfielders (or at times all three) playing super deep in their defending third.  The plan seemed obvious to play out of the back, build up through quick combo play and timed runs.  It was a disaster on that cold night at PNC, as we couldn't connect more than two or three passes together at a time and couldn't find Quintero in space in the attacking third, and Sebas couldn't find any service inside the penalty box at all.  We saw almost this same style play out last year, as Tab instituted a 4-3-3 with Vera, Jones, and Memo early in the season.  The problems were similar vs. Frisco in the last tune-up game, and the questions remain as to whether Nagamura will continue to try to develop this system, whether the Dynamo can succeed playing this way this year, or will Nagumura try to change tactics in order build some wins.

Paulo Nagamura

Synopsis: 

Pat Onstad and others have all talked about a "Proactive" approach to soccer inside PNC, and I found it interesting the number of articles I dug up from the glory days referencing this exact same mantra. In the early goings of the preseason, it's looked ugly against MLS-level opponents.  While the record isn't terrible, the games against Austin F.C., Toronto F.C.,  and F.C. Frisco were tuff to watch.  The ball movement hasn't been crisp, the off-ball movement hasn't been timed well, and the first touch and possession game has been really poor.

While being "proactive" can be the focus and mindset, the Dynamo don't have the midfield to do it.  I'm not even sure they have the wings to do it, although I think this style of play fits Fafa if we can get the ball to him on the run the way Bayern gets the ball to Leroy Sane and Serge Gnabry in space.  While Lundqvist somewhat fits this style, Zarek Valentine can't go forward well enough, and Griffen Dorsey doesn't defend well enough.  Even if Zeca is the answer they are looking for, the midfield is still a problem. They simply don't have the personnel that fits this style of play.  Last year's team was one of the worst passing teams in MLS, one of the worst possession teams in MLS, and it wasn't simply because of Coaching decisions and style of play.  It was because of the personnel on the field.   The midfield (at least at the time of this writing) hasn't seen a new addition this offseason. This year is going to be an installation year, and one where you should see the team progress as the year goes along.  Hopefully, a change in the style of play will lead to a better product on the field, but I don't see it leading to a better place in the standings, at least not for this year.

Prediction:

If the Dynamo truly try to install a "proactive" approach with this squad, it's going to be a long season.  The squad simply doesn't fulfill this style and doesn't have the horses to do it.  We don't have the midfield to do it, outside backs to do it, and our wingers lack the ball skills and passing ability to be successful.  The midfield is slow, lacks touch, and doesn't connect well up top.  Quintero's creativity isn't going to carry us to a playoff birth and despite the addition of Clark and Sebas, this team isn't equipped to initiate this style of play or contend in the West.  Look for the Dynamo to finish 11th in the West this season.